A Giant Step Backwards?

The defending World Champion Giants are having a quiet camp. That seems par for the course considering how quietly they went about winning the 2010 World Series. After stunning the Baseball world with their title victory, the Giants return largely in tact in an effort to retain their title. The offense added Miguel Tejada to take the place of Edgar Renteria. Other than Tejada, the Giants will depend upon their 2010 mid-year additions Cody Ross and Pat Burrell to have a similar impact for the long haul of the 2011 season. Of course, a full season of Buster Posey, already a top three catcher in Baseball, will help improve the defending champ’s offense. But, the Giants are a pitching-first team. Last season, they led the league in team ERA, innings pitched, least hits allowed, earned runs allowed, and strikeouts. The staff, from top to bottom, was the class of Baseball. Once they qualified for the post season tournament, the elite staff took over and brought San Francisco its first World Series.

That just might be a problem in 2011.

Can Lincecum continue to perform at his level despite 37 additional innings?

The 2011 Giants are faced with the same problem that all World Series winners deal with. The post season hangover effect often lasts well into the following season. Pitchers, needing a period of rest and recovery, have one less month for that necessary recovery. Of course, there are the 20 to 30 additional innings to deal with as well as the stress inherent with that additional workload. With the Giants, those high leverage innings extended well before the post season began as they took over the division lead for good after game 156; their entire season was spent chasing. During the regular season, the Giants received 223.1 innings from Matt Cain and 212.1 from Tim Lincecum. Jonathan Sanchez added 193.1 while Barry Zito pitched 199.1 innings. Rookie Madison Bumgarner pitched 111 Major League innings after throwing 82.2 innings for Triple-A Fresno. Essentially, the Giants are returning a staff who each pitched 200 innings last season. It’s an incredible feat and the reason why they were able to win a World Series title despite a middling offense.

But, those 200 innings are only the regular season. Tim Lincecum pitched an additional 37 innings in the playoffs. Matt Cain had 21.1 post season innings. Sanchez added 20 more innings, while Bumgarner pitched an addition 20.2 innings. Lincecum’s 249.1 innings of work are 22 more than his previous career mark set in 2008. Cain’s 244.2 innings are 27 more than his previous career mark. Sanchez’s 213 innings are an astounding 60 more than his previous career mark. 21 year old Bumgarner enters the season having thrown 214.1 innings last season. His previous career high was when he was in 2008 at18 years of age. He threw 141.2 innings that season.

The Giants were not wrong for pushing their pitchers so far. They won a World Series. That’s the goal, even if it does potentially compromise a staff the following season. There is a potential problem for the Giants in 2011. Because their offense does not look significantly improved, the onus will once again be on the pitching staff to carry the team. The talent, of course, is there. But, if history is any indication, a certain level of regression can be expected.

Aces World Series Seasons and the Following Year

Name W/L ERA INN H/9 BB/9 K/9 HR/9 John Lackey ‘02 9/4 3.66 108.1 9.4 2.7 5.7 0.8 Lackey ‘03 10/16 4.63 204 9.8 2.9 6.7 1.4 Kurt Rueter ‘02 14/8 3.23 203 9.0 2.4 3.4 1.0 Rueter ‘03 10/5 4.53 147 10.4 2.9 2.5 0.9 Josh Beckett ‘03 9/8 3.04 142 8.4 3.5 9.6 0.6 Beckett ‘04 9/9 3.79 156.2 7.9 3.1 8.7 0.9 Curt Schilling ‘04 21/6 3.26 226.2 8.2 1.4 8.1 0.9 Schilling ‘05 8/8 5.69 93.1 11.7 2.1 8.4 1.2 Mark Buehrle ‘05 16/8 3.12 236.2 9.1 1.5 5.7 0.8 Buehrle ‘06 12/13 4.99 204 10.9 2.1 4.3 1.6 Chris Carpenter ‘06 15/8 3.09 221.2 7.9 1.7 7.5 0.9 Carpenter ’07 0/1 7.50 6 13.5 1.5 4.5 0 J. Bonderman ‘06 14/8 4.08 214 9.0 2.7 8.5 0.8 Bonderman ‘07 11/9 5.01 174.1 10.0 2.5 7.5 1.2 Josh Beckett ‘07 20/7 3.27 200.2 8.5 1.8 8.7 0.8 Beckett ‘08 12/10 4.03 174.1 8.9 1.8 8.9 0.9 Jeff Francis ‘07 17/9 4.22 215.1 9.8 2.6 6.9 1.0 Francis ‘08 4/10 5.01 143.2 10.3 3.1 5.9 1.3 James Shields ‘08 14/8 3.56 215 8.7 1.7 6.7 1.0 Shields ‘09 11/12 4.14 219.2 9.8 2.1 6.8 1.2 Cole Hamels ‘08 14/10 3.09 227.1 7.6 2.1 7.8 1.1 Hamels ‘09 10/11 4.32 193.2 9.6 2.0 7.8 1.1 CC Sabathia ’09 19/8 3.37 230 7.7 2.6 7.7 0.7 Sabathia ’10 21/7 3.17 237.2 7.9 2.7 7.5 0.8

In every case except the Florida Marlins version of Josh Beckett and CC Sabathia, the season following a World Series appearance saw some regression. In 10 of the 12 cases, the pitchers gave up more hits and more homeruns. While walks and strikeouts varied, each pitcher not named Sabathia had a worse ERA following the World Series. Obviously, the aces are the ones who are taxed the most. They get the additional starts in the playoffs. They get the longest leashes. But the impact on the World Series title is felt staff-wide.

Team WS YR ERA Next YR ERA WS YR SO Next YR SO 2002 Angels 3.69 4.28 999 980 2002 Giants 3.54 3.73 992 1,006 2003 Marlins 4.04 4.10 1,132 1,116 2004 Red Sox 4.18 4.74 1,132 959 2004 Cardinals 3.75 3.49 1,041 974 2005 White Sox 3.61 4.61 1,040 1,012 2005 Astros 3.51 4.08 1,164 1,160 2006 Cardinals 4.54 4.65 970 945 2006 Tigers 3.84 4.57 1,003 1,047 2007 Red Sox 3.87 4.01 1,149 1,185 2007 Rockies 4.32 4.77 967 1,041 2008 Phillies 3.88 4.16 1081 1153 2008 Rays 3.82 4.33 1143 1125 2009 Yankees 4.26 4.06 1260 1154 2009 Phillies 4.16 3.86 1153 1183

With the exceptions of the 2005 Cardinals and the 2010 Yankees and Phillies, each World Series pitching staff fared worse the following season. They gave up more runs and generally struck out less batters. In all three cases of improvement, significant pitchers were added to the rotation for the following season. The statistics point to a regression following a team’s World Series appearance.

For the Giants, that regression could be costly. Their offense doesn’t project to be markedly better than last season. A full season of Buster Posey will help, but both Aubrey Huff and Pat Burrell will be 34 years old. Better things aren’t coming from them. Andres Torres was a nice story last season, but he will be 34 years old as well and doesn’t have a track record beyond last season. Posey and rebound candidate Pablo Sandoval are the only regulars under 30 years old. Maybe number one prospect Brandon Belt has a Posey-like impact this season. At best, the offense performs to last season’s level. At worst, it regresses because of age.

Defensive metrics really liked the Giants last season as they finished second in UZR and numerous other defensive measurements. Adding Miguel Tejada is a downgrade. Another year on Burrell, Torres, Sanchez, and Ross don’t add up to expected improvement. Like the offense, the best the Giants can hope for is a repeat of last season.

Those two aspects, once again, puts the pressure squarely on the pitching staff. It is a heavily taxed pitching staff full of red flags. Tim Lincecum showed signs of trouble last season before turning it on the playoffs. Matt Cain is in unchartered waters entering his age 26 season. Jonathan Sanchez, now 28 years old, has to deal with the fatigue associated with 60 additional innings. History is not on his side. Madison Bumgarner is even more danger because of his innings spike and his young age. While Bumgarner isn’t a power pitcher, 70 additional innings at such a young age is difficult to overcome the following season. Injury lists are littered with young pitchers who have that type of innings spike.

It is entirely possible that the Giants perform to their career levels. Perhaps the staff rested and is training differently this spring. The fatigue may not even be a factor in the early going. But, all teams have dealt with the year-after effect. Some pitchers lose a tick or two on their fastball or fatigue more quickly. Because of the latter, there is an increase of disabled list trips. For a team that is so dependent on their pitching staff, a year-after regression damages hopes of returning to the playoffs. The 2009 Rays limped through their season before returning to the playoffs in 2010. The Giants likely have the same fate. Their main hope has to be that their pitchers avoid serious injury. They make take a step backwards in 2011, but the talent is there for an extended Giants’ playoff run. History just says that the run won’t be in 2011.

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