The Houston Astros' farm system was already not highly regarded and dropped even further following a few big swings in the 2025 MLB draft. Decimated by years of dealing prospects to further their run of contention, the Astros also saw the effects of the sign-stealing scandal penalties sap their opportunity to restock the farm with high-end talent.
Despite this, Houston has been able to produce some promising young talent like Zach Cole, whose stellar MLB debut served to try and keep the Astros afloat down the stretch, though they'd ultimately complete their collapse.
With the lack of premium talent in mind, general manager Dana Brown rolled the dice on a couple of toolsy but risky youngsters with Houston's first two selections. A lot of the attention went to Xavier Neyens, the club's first-rounder, who was selected out of high school and comes with a sky-high ceiling, but super low floor. But so far, it has been the club's second selection, the 95th overall pick in the draft, Ethan Frey, who has been turning heads.
Standing at 6-foot-6, the LSU outfielder wasn't ranked that highly by most evaluators heading into the draft. That was due in large part to his injury-plagued college career, which saw him accumulate just 88 plate appearances over his first two years in Baton Rouge.
Still, finally healthy in 2025, the 21-year-old raked to the tune of a .331/.420/.641 line, leading to Houston to give him an over-slot bonus of $997,500. In addition to being powerful, Frey is also speedy and athletic, giving the Astros the confidence to start him out in center field.
Frey is a tantalizing prospect, but until he took the field, it was all conjecture. Would his power translate to wooden bats? Would his athleticism really hold up? Would he fall prey to an exaggerated strikeout rate like most long-limbed sluggers do once they reach the professional ranks?
The answers to these questions are far from settled, but the initial returns are as good as Houston could have hoped for, with Frey ranking seventh on Baseball America's (subscription required) Top-10 pro debuts list.
Taking the field for Low-A Fayetteville, Frey hit .330/.434/.470 with three homers and nine stolen bases in 26 games. Beyond the box score, the underlying metrics also speak highly of his performance.
Per Carlos Collazo of Baseball America, "Among 50+ PA hitters, Frey ranked No. 1 with a 94.8 mph average exit velocity, No. 4 with a 108.3 mph 90th percentile EV and No. 4 with a 113.8 mph max EV. He also had a 25% barrel rate, which was good for No. 10 among 50+ PA hitters."
Collazo also noted that Frey has avoided the swing-and-miss pitfalls that are so common amongst hitters his size, posting a whiff rate of just 19.8% and a strikeout rate that comes in at a very manageable 20.5%.
Low-A is still a long way away from the majors, but Frey couldn't have done more to show his potential in his first big league action, vindicating the selection of a player many thought would go much later in the draft.
He'll be one to watch moving forward, and if he continues to show a mature approach at the plate, he could become a fast-riser through the Astros' system.
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