Best MLB strikeout bets: Fresh numbers are in, and you can benefit

The 2024 MLB season is just starting to heat up, and we finally have some data points on how lineups have fared in the strikeout department. Let's use those fresh stats to target three strikeout props for Monday's baseball slate. 

Bowden Francis under 4.5 Ks (-160 DraftKings)

Blue Jays vs. Astros, 8:10 p.m. ET

We're starting off with a heavily juiced pick, but we think the probability of Francis going under this number is higher than the odds suggest. We're also balancing it out with two plus-money bets for the night slate. 

Francis will be making his first MLB start Monday after pacing the Toronto Blue Jays' bullpen last season. The right-hander made 20 appearances in 2023, never pitched more than 4.0 innings in a single game and struck out only 8.7 batters per nine innings. He also gets a tough matchup for his first start, as the Houston Astros have the third-lowest strikeout rate (19.4 percent) in MLB through four games. Take the under in what should be a short start for Francis. 

Emerson Hancock under 2.5 Ks (+130 DK)

Guardians vs. Mariners, 9:40 p.m. ET

Hancock will start the year as the fifth starter for the Seattle Mariners, but that's only because Bryan Woo landed on the injured list right before the final roster cuts. The right-hander is coming off an injury-plagued rookie season in which he struck out only six batters in 12.0 innings of work. He returned for spring training and gave up 15 hits and 11 earned runs while striking out just eight batters in 9.2 innings. Hancock will likely have a short leash in his first MLB start since suffering a shoulder sprain last season, and the Cleveland Guardians have just an 18.6 percent strikeout rate through four games. 

Triston McKenzie over 6.5 Ks (+118 FanDuel)

Guardians vs. Mariners, 9:40 p.m. ET

We're sticking with the same game for our last pick. The Guardians have high hopes for McKenzie after injuries limited him to just four starts in 2023. The year before that, the right-hander recorded a 2.96 ERA in 30 starts and finished the season with the 10th-most strikeouts in the American League (190). If the Guardians can get that version of McKenzie back this year, their rotation will be in a great spot. He's set up for success right from the jump, too, as the Mariners are batting just .178 as a team and have the second-highest strikeout rate (34.9 percent) in MLB through four games.