Bobby Witt Jr's Extension Shows the Braves Are The Best in Baseball at Early Career Contracts

The Atlanta Braves, in many ways, are the envy of baseball. 

Whether it's their ballpark situation, where The Battery Atlanta is the new model for mixed-use development around a stadium, to their sustained success, many teams continue to be jealous of the Atlanta Braves. 

We were reminded of yet another way in which the Braves are a model franchise on Monday when news broke that Kansas City Royals SS Bobby Witt Jr. signed the largest contract in Royals history, agreeing to an eleven year deal with a guaranteed $288.8M. 

And in light of the new deal, there's a few reasons to have even more appreciation for what Alex Anthopoulos and the Braves have done on the contract front. 

Witt's money is WAY above what Braves players have signed for

Bobby Witt's getting just shy of $289 million over eleven years from Kansas City, good for $26.25M average annual value. 

And let's not misconstrue the point of this article - Bobby Witt Jr. is a great player. He earned that money, batting .276/.319/.495 with 30 homers and 49 stolen bases last season, the second straight year he finished with 20 or more home runs and 30 or more stolen bases. 

But $26.25M AAV is the 24th-largest per-year contract in baseball history, and that's before the escalators and club options. If the three year club option is exercised for the end of the contract, it becomes fourteen years and $377.7M. 

Again, it's hard to argue that Witt doesn't deserve to get paid like a superstar - only four players in baseball had thirty or more homers with a strikeout rate below Witt's 17.4%. 

But two of those players are members of the Braves, with both Ronald Acuña Jr and Ozzie Albies in that group.  

And from a financial standpoint, those two Atlanta players are making significantly less than Witt, even when combining their salaries. 

Acuña signed an eight year, $100M contract and is making $17M this season. Ozzie signed for seven years, $35M and is making $7M this season. The two players combined are making $2.25M less than Witt's AAV. 

In fact, no Braves player is currently set to make more than $22M in any season of their contract. Atlanta's given larger contracts than that - Josh Donaldson made $23M for 2019 and reportedly, the Braves offered Aaron Nola $27M AAV before he returned to the Philadelphia Phillies.

The Braves have avoided the player-friendly contract structure

Another interesting feature of Witt's contract is four consecutive player opt-outs, from 2031 through 2034, where he can chose to become a free agent after any of those seasons. If Witt exercises the first opt-out, it's a seven year, $148.7M deal and Witt hits free agency at the age of 30. 

Of all of the extensions Atlanta's signed - and there's a lot - no player holds an opt-out. The only options in any of the current contracts are held by the club, with almost every deal having at least one club option year on the end at the same salary that they were making at the highest point of the contract.

And Atlanta's deals, for the most part, have avoided extending too far into their players late-30 decline years. The two contracts that extend significantly into a player's 30s are Matt Olson and Austin Riley, who would both hit free agency at age 36 unless Atlanta exercises a one-year club option in 2030 and 2033, respectively. 

(And it's worth pointing out that those two players, both corner infielders, have a better chance of beating an aging curve than a shortstop, who is more contingent on range and quickness.)

Most other Braves would be reaching free agency in their early-30s, with a chance to re-sign early if Atlanta feels they're aging well and would be able to hold off Father Time. 

Witt, by contrast, is signed through age 34 on the base deal, with three option years that would lock Witt down through his age 37 season. As a player at a higher value defensive position, it's possible for him to kick out to third base, but it's still going to be harder for Witt to maintain the level of comprehensive value across the life of the contract. 

Where's the excess value? 

The Kansas City Royals now have the highest luxury tax payroll in the AL Central at $161.1M (which is not something I ever thought I'd say.) 

Witt accounts for just under 16.3% of that figure, with his luxury tax payroll of $26.25M. With one Win Above Replacement having cost $5.7M from position players in last season's free agency, Witt needs to produce 4.61 WAR for the contract to make sense solely from a baseball standpoint. 

(Obviously there's more to it than that - he's the new face of the franchise, the organization is trying to get a new ballpark built with public funds, etc, and there's intangible value to all of that. But work with me here.) 

Witt produced 4.4 WAR last season, so he was right in the ballpark off of the "required" value to have the contract make sense. 

But where's the excess value? Bobby Witt had his best season of his (admittedly short) career and he just barely came up to what he'd need to produce for the contract's money to make sense from a strictly baseball perspective. 

Atlanta, meanwhile, is getting tons of surplus value from their deals. 

Ronald Acuña Jr was worth 8.2 WAR on a $17M salary - the cost on the open market for that would have been $46.74M. Matt Olson produced 7.4 WAR on a $22M salary, good for $42.18M. Austin Riley's 5.9 WAR was worth $33.63M on the open market, but he's carrying an AAV of only $21.2M.  

As much as we don't like to acknowledge it, the way to build a sustainable major league roster is to extract excess value where possible, not pay every player exactly what they're worth from a baseball perspective. 

Again, I'm happy for Bobby Witt Jr. He's incredibly fun to watch and a phenomenal player. 

I just don't want Bobby Witt Jr., on this $26.25M AAV contract, on my team. I'd rather have the combination of Ronald Acuña Jr and Ozzie Albies and Orlando Arcia (combined $26.43M) instead. 

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