Found September 19, 2009 on Cubs f/x:
Picimg_orioles_v_cardinals_ed33
Nothing like losing a tough game, only to wake-up to face one of the best pitchers in baseball. Sunday's no treat (Adam Wainwright) but let's deal with Ryan Dempster's Saturday opponent, Chris Carpenter, first.

Carpenter throws a sinker (dark red), cutter (green), curveball (coral) and some change-ups (blue) and the rare four seam fastball (yellow).

Spin movement (in inches; catcher's view):



Arm angle corrected spin axis (degrees) by speed at release (mph)



He has terrific control:


cfx#MPHB:CSIWZ

Change-up5486.12.50.407
Curveball60675.72.20.436
Sinker115593.61.40.627
Fastball892.50.01.000
Cutter69788.22.20.534
2,52087.61.80.552


The sinker is thrown to contact, but the rest of the pitches miss a good number of bats. The cutter is tough to hit, despite being a frequent visitor to the strike zone. The key is the high chase rate, so it looks like a pitch he can command in and out of the zone.


cfx#SwingWhiffChaseWatch
Change-up540.3520.2110.1880.409
Curveball6060.3700.3710.2870.515
Sinker11550.4380.0950.2000.408
Fastball80.3750.3330.625
Cutter6970.5680.2600.4030.285
2,5200.4560.2080.2840.396


If you haven't heard or figured it out, Carpenter is a ground ball machine.


cfx#GB%FB%PU%LD%
Change-up5443%50%0%7%
Curveball60661%13%9%17%
Sinker115558%19%5%17%
Fastball8




Cutter69748%26%9%17%

2,52055%21%6%17%


Which means his pitches are tough to elevate. Put it all together, and you have a pitcher who will waste a change-up to lefties, but has three plus pitches that he throws often to everyone.


cfx#nkSLGHR/FL%rv100rv100E
Change-up540.5000%3.052.69
Curveball6060.3330%-1.60-1.27
Sinker11550.4264%-1.46-0.94
Fastball8

-4.93-4.93
Cutter6970.3555%-2.40-0.99

2,5200.3954%-1.67-0.97


Carpenter's velocity, if you go back to 2008, has been on the rise. But, if you look at his home starts and raise and skeptical eyebrow at one start, he may be wearing down a bit.



Carpenter was knocked around (a six run inning) last time out, and LaRussa was more concerned than his pitcher.
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