Christian Walker Has Another Terrific Season in 2023

Christian Walker has been one of the most reliable and sturdy veteran players on the Diamondbacks roster since he started playing full-time in 2019. The quiet leader has become one of the best first basemen in the MLB thanks to his excellent glove, power, and ability to drive in runs. Walker may not have the same boisterous attitude or personality, but he leads by example and continues to find success through hard work and determination. He does all this while hardly ever missing a game after playing in 157 regular season games this season.

Walker started the season slow in April following his immediate four-game hit streak. He followed that with just two hits in nine straight games. He rebounded from that to get his batting line of .248/.288/.426/.714. The power was there as he doubled six times and homered four times in 27 games and 25 hits. He drove in 19 runs. However, the concern lay with his ability to make contact. He had 21 strikeouts to only six walks. It was very abnormal for Walker to not walk a lot as evidenced by his career OBP difference of 79 points compared to his batting average. There was reason for hope though for his batting average as he had a below-average .266 BABIP (batting average on balls in play).

In May, the bad luck continued for Walker despite improvements in his walk rate and slugging. He batted just .237 despite an OBP of .327 and a slugging rate of .526. His OPS was a strong .853. He managed just 23 hits in 26 games, but he hit four doubles and eight home runs to go with 16 RBI. Even better, he walked 13 times to just 23 strikeouts. This was the Walker approach that fans and coaches expected to see. However, the bad luck with his horrific .227 BABIP gave plenty of reason for optimism that his batting average would get higher.

In June, his luck swayed to the complete opposite spectrum as it seemed every time he made contact, the ball would find a patch of grass. In 26 games, he had 35 hits, 15 doubles, four home runs, and 19 RBI. This led to a line of .347/.412/.614/1.026. He walked 11 times to only 11 strikeouts. He was making contact with everything at an unsustainable rate as his .356 BABIP indicated. Walker led the team to plenty of wins as he powered this offense from a slugging standpoint, however.

In July, the bad luck returned as Walker's BABIP dropped to a season-low of .218. Despite the lackluster results from his contact, Walker still managed to make 13 of his 18 hits go for extra bases. He had seven doubles and six home runs, showing off his power in big ways in his 24 games. He had 14 RBI and a strong 15/28 walk-strikeout ratio. His OPS for the month was an above-average .819 despite a .205 batting average.

Walker's fortunes reversed again in August. Over his 27 games, his BABIP was .333. This high rate fueled another standout month for Walker in terms of his batting average and contact. While the power dropped off, he had just two doubles, a triple, and six home runs, he strung together 29 hits. He continued to drive in runs reliably with 19 of them. Walker stayed true to his name with another 10 walks against just 23 strikeouts. His average was .302 while his OPS was a power-driven .898. While the rest of the Diamondbacks struggled or slumped to a degree in August, Walker stayed reliable and helped lead the team out of their August woes. 

Walker finished the season on a rough note. In his final 27 games, Walker hit just .202 and the power was non-existent with just a .667 OPS. This was partially due to his worst BABIP of the season at .203, but he wasn't hitting the ball as hard either. Still, of his 20 hits, eight went for extra bases including five home runs, a triple, and two doubles. He continued to drive in runs with 16 of them. 

The one surprise was that he walked only seven times against 21 strikeouts. Walker did continue to be dangerous at the plate, but the slump came at an inopportune time as the Diamondbacks made a challenging push for the playoffs. His standout moment came late in the season against the White Sox when he had three hits, a triple, and two home runs, for six RBI in a blowout win.

In the playoffs, Walker reversed his slump and became one of the D-backs' most dangerous hitters in the NLWC and NLDS. Across those five games, Walker had five hits, four runs, two doubles, and a home run to go with five RBI. He walked four times to just five strikeouts. Plus, he stole two bases. He put the game away in Game One of the NLWC with his heroic ninth-inning double to put the D-backs up by three runs.

The slump returned in the NLCS. Over the seven-game series, Walker slashed just .091/.310/.136/.447. He had just two hits and two RBI but continued to get on base with seven walks against just nine strikeouts. This was huge for the D-backs to maintain a presence on the basepaths and create chaos as he did with two stolen bases.

In the World Series, Walker got going once again, stringing together a four-game hit streak. He had six hits, including two doubles, to go with two walks and five strikeouts. He stole another two bases, reaching six for the whole postseason. While the Diamondbacks failed to win the World Series, the veteran first baseman played hard with five doubles, a home run, seven RBI, and 13 walks against 19 strikeouts to go along with his excellent defense.

Digging Deeper into the Statistics

Walker won his second straight Gold Glove in 2023. He had nine Defensive Runs Saved and a terrific 3.5 UZR. He had 12 Outs Above Average. That led all of MLB's first basemen and was 17th in all of MLB. The next closest first baseman had six.

Despite the struggles in the batting average department, Walker still had a .351 wOBA, .342 xwOBA, and a 120 wRC+ (100 league average). His OPS+ was 23% better than the average hitter at 123. He had 1.7 Wins Above Average to go along with his strong WAR above. He outperformed his expected batting average of .250 by finishing with .258. His BABIP of .272 for the season was almost 30 points higher than his 2022 number of .248. So, while it was difficult at times for Walker, he still performed better than expected for his advanced metrics.

Walker saw a career-high in ISO power with .239 despite some alarming trends. While he struck out less than 22 at just 19.2% of the time, Walker's walk rate wnet down by nearly a full percentage to 9.4%. He hit the ball with less authority with just an 88.0 mph Exit Velocity compared to 22' when he hit 90. His Hard Hit% dropped from 44.2% to 40.4%. His Line Drive % dropped from 21.4% to 19.4%. This helps to explain why the advanced metrics weren't as pleased with his performance as his end-season stats were. Regardless, these are still good stats that predict future success for Walker in 2024.

The most surprising element of Walker's season was his 11 stolen bases. That was a career-high and unexpected for a first baseman in his age-32 season. This could be due to the rule changes with larger bases and limited pick-offs. Walker reached several career highs. He broke through the 100-RBI plateau with 103. He had a career-high in hits (150), runs (86), doubles (36), triples (2), slugging, and OPS.  Overall, it was a fantastic season for the Diamondbacks franchise first baseman who is a leader in all facets of the game.

2024 Status and Outlook

Walker is entering his age-33 season. He's under control for just one more season at an expected arbitration rate of $11.5 MM. He will be the team's first baseman for next season and continue to be a highlight reel of power and defense. He will seek to become a three-time Gold Glove winner and try for his first All-Star season. 

However, it remains to be seen if the Diamondbacks have interest in re-signing him to a long-term deal. While there is uncertainty in the prospect system for first base, they do have two potential players who could play there in Ivan Melendez and Gino Groover. However, they're likely two years or more away from reaching the big leagues. Thus, the D-backs may look to extend Walker for another couple of seasons until they have prospects ready. His play doesn't seem likely to drop off in the foreseeable future. Plus, it's hard to replace the best glove at first base in MLB and the team's best power hitter. Enjoy Walker as much as you can this season as it could be his final one in a D-backs uniform.