Cubs vs. Pirates odds, prediction, pick for 5/11: Bet the Under in Skenes' debut?

Cubs vs. Pirates Odds

Saturday, May 11, 4:05 p.m. ET, MLB.TV

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

Chicago Cubs

Left-hander Justin Steele is slated to make his third start of the campaign, and he should be a great candidate to back. Through his first two outings, Steele boasts a commanding 0.96 ERA and 0.86 WHIP.

While he does not qualify for analytical percentile rankings yet, we can look at Steele's 2023 metrics and see that regression should not be a major concern. The left-hander finished last season ranked in the 75th percentile or higher in xERA, average exit velocity and barrel rate.

However, run support is certainly not guaranteed for Steele. Entering this matchup, Chicago ranks in the bottom half of the league in hits per game, BA, SLG, OPS and stolen bases.

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Pittsburgh Pirates

Now to the main reason that most of the baseball world will be tuning into this game: Paul Skenes.

The 2023 first overall pick is slated to make his MLB debut on Saturday, and Pirates fans (those left) ought to be very excited for what the right-hander has to offer. Skenes started off the campaign down in Triple-A, and he utterly dominated. In seven starts, he posted a 0.99 ERA and a 0.91 WHIP.

The guy was averaging over two strikeouts per inning (!) across those seven outings, so, obviously, there is a lot to be excited about from the LSU product. Even if the Bucs keep Skenes on a short leash, we should be able to trust this Pittsburgh bullpen as it ranks in the top half of the league in both FIP and xFIP.

However, like Steele and the Cubs, run support is certainly not guaranteed for this pitching staff. This season, the Pirates rank in the bottom nine of the league in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, home runs and stolen bases.

Cubs vs. Pirates

Betting Pick & Prediction

I think there is more value in taking Under 7 at +100 than laying -120 on Under 7.5. With that said, I like either option, so what matters is whether you are risk averse or not.

Regardless, both lineups are below league average and we know what to expect from Steele. The question that looms is how Skenes will handle his debut, but as a guy who has dominated at every level, the right-hander will likely be just fine.

Even if Skenes is a bit shaky and gets pulled early, the Pirates bullpen can handle the rest.

Pick: Under 7 (+100 at FanDuel | Play to -105)