Originally posted on Fangraphs  |  Last updated 3/28/13
Table of Contents Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of the Daily Notes. 1. How 2012′s Spring Pitching Leaders Fared 2. SCOUT Leaderboards: Spring Training (Overall) 3. SCOUT Leaderboards: Spring Training (Rookies) Maurer, Rondon Among Spring’s Leading Rookies We have established in the Notes this week both that (a) there are questions to be asked with regard to the author’s competence in this, and every other, endeavor, and also that (b) the pitchers who finished among the top 10 on last spring’s SCOUT leaderboard had much better regular seasons than those who finished among the bottom-10. This being the case, then, it would not be surprising to see Julio Teheran, Stephen Strasburg, and Matt Harvey (Nos. 1-3 on the SCOUT pitching leaderboard below) outperform Tim Hudson, Kevin Correia, Joe Kelly (the ultimate, penultimate, antepenultimate pitchers by SCOUT) in the season to come. Of note, then, is what we might learn about certain rookie-eligible pitchers who’ve performed particularly well by SCOUT this spring. We’ve considered Julio Teheran, J.J. Hoover, and Michael Wacha earlier this spring. Among the top-five spring rookie pitchers below, however, there are two new addition: Seattle starter Brandon Maurer and Detroit reliever Bruce Rondon. Considered for much of the winter to be a very real candidate in Detroit for the closer role vacated by Jose Valverde, Rondon was actually optioned to Triple-A this morning. While Rondon did little to dispel concerns this spring regarding his control, walking over 12% of the batters he faced, he also did nothing to dispel the notion that he could induce swings and misses, striking out nearly a third of opposing batters. Because the latter (i.e. strikeout rate) stabilizes more quickly than the former (i.e. walk rate), SCOUT will favor strikeout-oriented pitchers in smaller samples. Like Erasmo Ramirez last season, the right-handed Maurer has emerged from within the Mariners organization without any of the publicity of that club’s triumvirate of top pitching prospects, Danny Hultzen, James Paxton, and Taijuan Walker. After posting a 117:48 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 137.2 innings at Double-A Jackson last season, Maurer has recorded a 22:6 strikeout-to-walk ratio — and performed well enough to earn him the No. 4 spot in the Mariners rotation. SCOUT Leaderboards: Spring Training (Overall) SCOUT Leaderboard: Spring Hitters Below is the current SCOUT batting leaderboard for spring training. SCOUT+ combines regressed home-run, walk, and strikeout rates in a FIP-like equation to produce a result not unlike wRC+, where 100 is league average (in this case, for all spring hitters) and above 100 is above average. xHR%, xBB%, and xK% stand for expected home run, walk, and strikeout rate, respectively. Player Team Pos PA HR BB K xHR% xBB% xK% SCOUT+ Ryan Raburn CLE UT 52 5 9 4 3.9% 10.5% 14.4% 129 Jose Bautista TOR RF 62 5 9 7 3.8% 10.1% 15.2% 125 Gaby Sanchez PIT CIF 51 4 8 3 3.6% 10.1% 13.8% 124 Freddie Freeman ATL 1B 79 7 4 9 4.3% 6.9% 14.5% 123 Steve Pearce BAL COR 45 6 4 6 4.3% 8.3% 16.5% 122 Matt Wieters BAL C 43 5 5 5 4.0% 8.9% 16.1% 121 Don Kelly DET UT 54 4 7 5 3.6% 9.4% 14.8% 120 Christian Yelich FLA LF 51 5 6 7 3.9% 9.1% 16.5% 120 Domonic Brown PHI COF 91 7 6 14 4.2% 7.4% 16.4% 119 Derek Norris OAK C 43 5 8 10 4.0% 10.4% 19.4% 119 SCOUT Leaderboard: Spring Pitchers Below is the current SCOUT leaderboard for spring training. SCOUT- combines regressed strikeout and walk rates in a kwERA-like equation to produce a number not unlike ERA-, where 100 is league average (in this case, for all spring pitchers) and below 100 is better than average. xK% and xBB% stand for expected strikeout and walk rate, respectively. Player Team G GS IP TBF K BB xK% xBB% SCOUT- Julio Teheran ATL 6 6 26.0 95 35 9 30.0% 8.3% 71 Stephen Strasburg WSH 6 6 25.1 108 31 7 25.7% 7.8% 81 Matt Harvey NYM 6 6 23.1 96 29 7 25.8% 7.9% 81 Josh Johnson TOR 5 3 16.0 60 21 1 24.8% 7.4% 82 Raul Valdes PHI 8 2 17.1 68 22 1 24.6% 7.3% 82 Alex Cobb TB 6 6 25.2 99 28 5 24.8% 7.5% 82 J.J. Hoover CIN 8 0 9.0 37 16 1 24.3% 7.7% 84 Clayton Kershaw LAD 6 6 25.0 106 28 7 24.0% 7.8% 85 Bryan Shaw CLE 8 0 9.0 33 14 1 23.4% 7.8% 86 Al Alburquerque DET 12 0 12.0 51 18 7 23.9% 8.6% 87 SCOUT Leaderboards: Spring Training (Rookies) SCOUT Leaderboard: Spring Rookie Hitters Below is a table of the the top-five spring hitters per SCOUT who are also rookie eligible. “Rank” stands for each player’s rank among Marc Hulet’s organizational top-15 list for the relevant organization. Player Team Pos Rank PA HR BB K xHR% xBB% xK% SCOUT+ Christian Yelich FLA COF   51 5 6 7 3.9% 9.1% 16.5% 120 Conor Gillaspie CWS 3B   55 2 8 2 2.9% 9.9% 12.7% 118 Brandon Barnes HOU OF   44 5 1 5 4.0% 6.8% 16.0% 115 Khris Davis MIL LF   58 6 4 12 4.2% 7.8% 19.0% 114 Brandon Laird HOU CIF   57 5 4 10 3.9% 7.8% 17.8% 113 SCOUT Leaderboard: Spring Rookie Pitchers Below is a table of the the top-five spring pitchers per SCOUT who are also rookie eligible. “Rank” stands for each player’s rank among Marc Hulet’s organizational top-15 list for the relevant organization. Player Team Rank G GS IP TBF K BB xK% xBB% SCOUT- Julio Teheran ATL   6 6 26.0 95 35 9 30.0% 8.3% 71 J.J. Hoover CIN   8 0 9.0 37 16 1 24.3% 7.7% 84 Michael Wacha STL   5 0 11.2 44 15 1 22.8% 7.6% 87 Brandon Maurer SEA   6 3 20.0 80 22 6 23.1% 8.0% 87 Bruce Rondon DET   12 0 11.2 55 18 7 23.5% 8.6% 88
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