Diamondbacks 2024 Player Projections: Jordan Lawlar

Lawlar already is going to be the most difficult player on the 40-man roster to project. The shortstop position in Arizona has a lot of moving parts, which very much depends on the performance of other players. That will impact when he receives the opportunities to make an everyday impact for the D-backs, which could happen as early as Opening Day or at the middle point of the season.

Lawlar is projected to make 60 starts at shortstop on the season and 253 plate appearances. He's projected to put up a .240/.314/.373 slash line with a 25% strikeout rate and an 8% walk rate, totaling up 0.9 WAR.  While the 0.9 WAR seems low, when factoring in the 253 plate appearances it actually comes out slightly above-average despite a .688 OPS. That speaks to the fact how far his glove has come in just one season, where he's improved to the point where he was named the best defensive infielder in the organization.

Why Lawlar Might Outperform This Projection

It starts with opportunities. Lawlar will get more opportunities at the major league level should he beat out the Perdomo/Newman platoon in spring. The Newman signing was always meant to be a stopgap, to allow the D-backs top prospect to develop at his own pace. 60 starts at short and 253 plate appearances feels closer to the lower end of what will happen.

Additionally, Lawlar has hit well at every minor league stop. He's experienced speed bumps along the way, notably a lengthy slump between April 20th and May 21st with Amarillo last year. Once he got over the slump, Lawlar raked for the next three months and put up a 149 wRC+ between Amarillo and Reno. Regardless of how Lawlar performed once he got to the majors, it wasn't because he didn't earn that chance.

There have been cases where players with solid minor league track records have not quite made the adjustments at the major league level, but Lawlar has shown the ability to make them even in the minors. The level of maturity the young man shows, which is apparent by the way he conducts himself on and off the field, suggests he'll do the same at the major league level.

Why Lawlar Might Underperform This Projection

When it comes to top prospects, sometimes the transition to the major leagues can be difficult. For 2024, major league pitching may still be too challenging for him and he struggles in the few opportunities given. That could mean a longer stay in Reno, although realistically there isn't much Lawlar can do down there to be better prepared against major league pitching.

Summary

Lawlar is currently on the outside looking in for a spot on the Opening Day roster, but still has an opportunity to convince the front office otherwise in spring. His strong track record of hitting in the minors combined with his makeup suggests someone who is primed to be the everyday shortstop of the future. The only question remaining is when will that clock start?