Diamondbacks 2024 Player Projections: Kevin Newman

Our playing time projection has him taking 150 plate appearances. Notably, he will most likely only find a way to reach this number if the team opts to keep Lawlar in Triple-A, which is a legitimate possibility.

Newman is projected to raise his average to a more consistent .264, but reach base at the same rate and actually decrease his power, slugging five points lower and seeing a 16 point drop in ISO. 

He's projected a very low strikeout rate, matching last season's 13.4%. However, a drop in an already-low walk rate will translate to a lackluster .311 OBP. All in all, the most limited role of his career is projected to see him produce positive WAR again, although all of these are relatively dependent on whether or not he's able to win sufficient major league action in 2024.

Why Newman might outperform this projection

Jordan Lawlar struggled heavily in his first major league action. Although his ceiling is still extremely high, he only played 16 games in Triple-A. Since he failed to have an immediate impact on the major league roster, it's quite possible the D-backs will stash him in Reno to open the season, opening up an opportunity for Newman to take legitimate playing time.

While Geraldo Perdomo is the starter, and Arizona's infield is more solidified with the addition of third baseman Eugenio Suárez, Newman could find a way to fit into a platoon role along with Perdomo and exceed his playing time projection.

He's definitely more of a contact hitter, and brings excellent plate discipline. He not only rarely strikes out, he rarely whiffs or chases at all. His 13.4% strikeout rate was near the top of MLB, and he does bring above average speed and discipline.

In one of Newman's most active seasons, he slashed .308/.353/.446/.799, so his slash could benefit from more playing time if he is able to take that larger role. Additionally, while his average might have only been .253 in 2023, his xBA was 20 points higher, in the top half of MLB at .272.

Since his projection is relatively low, he could string together some solid at-bats and find a way to be a more consistent contact hitter for the D-backs. Any improvement in his sub-par defense would also help his aWAR.

Why Newman might underperform this projection

Newman, outside of a .300+ average one season, has really never been an effective bat. While he finds a way to make contact, and doesn't strike out often, he also has never slugged above his .446 clip in 2019. In fact, that's the only time he's touched .400 in the SLG category. 

His xSLG, average exit velocity, hard-hit rate and barrel rate were all well below average in 2023, and that has been a consistent pattern through his major league career. Each of those metrics have been around or below the bottom 10% of MLB for his entire career.

Defensively, he's not a factor. He's more of a hindrance than a help in the infield, Although he's been used in a utility infield role, he's only posted a positive rDRS at his natural shortstop position once in his career. He posted -8 total rDRS in 2023, and his -15 career rDRS is a singular stellar +7 season away from being in the -20s.

He has a bottom half range and arm strength, so his selling point is his offense, which has also been relatively light. While Perdomo isn't the greatest ever producer at the plate, Newman doesn't provide much more. While it is certainly possible he wins playing time in spring training, his underlying metrics and career history present a concern that his numbers will dip below a solid BA and some other mediocre numbers.

Summary

If Lawlar starts out in Triple-A, the veteran Newman will see some playing time, and could outperform his numbers with some consistency and better quality contact. However, his career trajectory has been for middle-grade depth at best, and doesn't provide exceptional offense or defense. His projections don't expect high production, so he could outperform with some better power hitting, but his solid .264 average is a number that he hasn't shown he can consistently outperform, and his defense leaves a lot to be desired.