Diamondbacks 2024 Player Projections: Scott McGough

There isn't much sample size to be had from McGough's MLB experience. While he was excellent in NPB, he only had six major league appearances (back in 2015) before coming to Arizona. 

Our usage projection expects him to see far less action than what was asked of him in 2023, and to have a more solid statistical season overall. His ERA and FIP are both projected close to a full run lower, he's expected to walk batters at a lower rate, and while he is expected to collect fewer strikeouts, a near 25% strikeout rate is still a respectable number.

Steamer expects a better, 3.77 ERA, while ZiPS is less generous, but both systems see McGough having better end of season numbers than he finished with in 2023. Overall, the right-hander's projections expect him to have a more solid season, allowing fewer home runs and being more consistent in a smaller, less critical relief role.

Why McGough might outperform this projection

McGough provided a great deal of value to the D-backs in 2023. While many examine his rougher outings and remember the dramatic blown saves, he was a crucial contributor before the outbreak of Thompson, Ginkel and Sewald. Without his efforts in late innings, Arizona likely doesn't head into September with a legitimate shot at the postseason.

McGough didn't just provide late relief, he provided length. A bullpen that was often taxed due to short outings by starters, and mostly lacking in depth and talent, the D-backs needed a guy who could go multiple innings in relief.

McGough did just that, frequently pitching more than a full inning and sometimes going two full innings or more. He pitched over 70 innings despite not finishing the season.

It's very possible his sharp decline was due to over-use, which could have also been a contributing factor to his injury. Fatigue could have led to less control, which leads to longer innings, which exacerbated fatigue, until the cycle ended with an IL designation. For a majority of the season, McGough was very effective, and he struck batters out at an excellent 28.6% rate, with 86 Ks in 70 1/3 innings.

He ranked in the top 20% on MLB in whiff and K rate, and the 78th percentile in getting opponents to chase outside the zone. Given that his arsenal is mainly meant to create whiffs and chases, it's also encouraging to see that he still boasted a top 20% ground ball rate, at 49.2%.

McGough has the tools and raw stuff to be able to exceed expectations, and with a much lower workload, could easily pitch closer to his sub-3.00 ERA self again. He was excellent in his NPB career, with a 2.94 ERA, 80 saves and 251 strikeouts over 232 2/3 innings in his four years overseas. A near 4.00 ERA projection is easily surpassable for the reliever, especially when there isn't much of a threat of overwork.

Why McGough might underperform this projection

McGough sports a limited arsenal, primarily utilizing a four-seam fastball and splitter, with an occasional slider. His fastball velocity was average at best, topping out at 93.5mph, and his splitter was a volatile pitch. 

A misplaced McGough splitter either ended up in the dirt or hanging over the plate, putting him into hitter-friendly counts or allowing opponents to tee off on him. His control became an issue, which led to longer innings or serving up meatballs to opposing batters.

When they did hit him, they hit him hard. McGough sported a 1st percentile hard-hit rate, 4th percentile in average exit velocity and 12th percentile in barrel rate. Since his pitches are entirely reliant on placement, if his control is the slightest bit off, his numbers could balloon up past his projections. 

His xERA and xBA are both below average, and his fastball serves as more of a set-up pitch than one that can make guys miss. While his fastball is nothing exceptional, it did have a run value of three, whereas his primary knockout pitches in his split finger and slider had a cumulative -3 run value.

If he can't consistently keep his fastball on the edges of the zone, and prevent his slider and splitter from becoming either non-competitive balls or a batter's dream over the plate, he'll likely see another rough year of rockets being hit off of him, with the ERA and FIP to follow.

Summary

McGough was certainly a valuable asset for a portion of the 2023 season. His projections expect him to take a bit of a back seat in the bullpen, and pitch to overall better numbers. While he  has the stuff to be a very effective reliever, providing length in a pinch or a lock-down arm in low leverage, he also struggles with control, leading to more walks and harder hit balls. Whether he exceeds or falls short of projections relies on his ability to hit his spots and not do the batters any favors.