Found May 22, 2013 on 643ball:
Bullish: Edwin JacksonEdwin Jackson is currently sporting a 1-6 record with a 5.76 ERA. Those aren’t numbers that are useful in fantasy baseball. Chances are Edwin was cut or can be had for a very small price in your fantasy league. I’ve never been a huge Jackson fan but he is definitely not as bad as he looks right now and could help your team going forward. He has been allowing 42% of the runners on base get to home plate. That’s extraordinary for a guy that normally only allows about 25% of the runners that reach base to score. His K/BB ratio is around his career numbers and he’s allowing about 1 HR/9, which is around his career average. So what’s wrong with Edwin?  His LOB% is the second worst in the league and only .1 percentage points better than Ryan Vogelsong, who possesses the worst LOB%. I’m speculating that as Edwin lowers his opponents BABIP, he will begin to strand more runners and lower both his ERA and WHIP. Edwin’s SIERA is 3.97 and his xFIP is 3.87. Not exactly ace numbers but in comparison to his current ERA and WHIP, you can begin to see that a market correction is in his future. Don’t forget that Edwin and his super agent Scott Boras did not secure a long-term deal this past offseason. Edwin is pitching on a one-year prove it deal and will need to show potential suitors that he is worth the long-term deal that Boras believes he deserves. Edwin could also be traded to a contender at the deadline, which would likely increase his win total. EJax has always been around a 7-8 k/9 pitcher, so he will likely remain useful in the strikeout category. By no means do I think that EJax is an ace and in fact, highly underrated Jeff Samardzija already holds that title on the Cubs, but what I am saying is that EJax will likely help your team for a cheap price moving forward. Picking him up as a 6th or 7th pitcher on your roster may not look smart now but in the coming months, I bet it’s the type of move that will help you win a fantasy championship.Bearish: Patrick CorbinPatrick Corbin is proving that Kurt Gibson made the right decision choosing him for the 5th spot in the Diamondbacks rotation this spring. He has paid some good early dividends for his fantasy owners as he currently has a record of 7-0 with a 1.44 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP. Those are great numbers for the lefty and I’m sure his fantasy owners are elated with the early season production. According to FantasyPros.com, Corbin had an average draft position of 351.7. Corbin has provided a lot of bang for your buck. I’m suggesting that you maximize his value by trading him now because his early season peripherals are screaming adjustment. One of the first things I look at when a pitcher is on a hot streak is his LOB%. Corbin is currently stranding runners at the third best rate in the Major Leagues. He’s pretty much a career 70% LOB pitcher but he is currently stranding runners at an 88%. His SIERA is 3.67 and he ended last year with a 3.71 SIERA. Those numbers are closer to the what you should expect from Corbin. He’s actually walking a higher percentage of batters this year and striking out slightly more. He has yet to be burned by the long ball and those types of statistics take the longest to normalize. I expect Corbin to pitch closer to his xFIP and SIERA for the rest of the year and if you can get a pitcher like Jeff Samardzija or Homer Bailey for him, I would pull the trigger fast! Tell potential trade partners that only Clayton Kershaw has a better ERA than Corbin. I would sell now because Corbin is coming off of a complete game 3 hitter at Colorado. Those performances stick out to fantasy owners and they will happily take the guy with the 2nd best ERA off of your hands. Corbin has been great so far this season but I wouldn’t expect him to continue pitching over his head, remember this is a guy that was fighting for a 5th spot in the rotation in the spring. Trust me, Kirk Gibson is not that smart.Trevor SteelFollow Trevor on Twitter @TrevorCSteel
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