Giants vs. Reds prediction, odds, picks 5/11: Targeting the F5 Over/Under

Giants vs. Reds Odds

Saturday, May 11, 7:15 p.m. ET, FOX

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

San Francisco Giants

Someone had to let down in a crowded NL West this season, and it looks like it will be Gabe Kapler's Giants. Even at 17-23, they have outperformed their expected record by two wins, and own a -44 run differential.

The offense has been a large disappointment — it enters this matchup averaging only 3.70 runs per game, with the 19th-worst wRC+ (98).  Matt Chapman has been a gigantic disappointment, and Jung Hoo Lee has also struggled to transition to MLB, as most preseason projections anticipated.

The Giants have hit to a wRC+ of only 98 versus left-handed pitching this season. Their potency versus LHP takes an additional hit with Jorge Soler sidelined, as his .846 OPS versus lefties paces their everyday batters.

Black will hope his second career outing goes smoother than his first one, and it seems realistic to think that it could. He was hanging in reasonably well for the first four innings against the Phillies before a late blowup in the fifth inning left him with an ugly final line. Given a better bullpen situation, Black likely exits that game earlier and finishes with a cleaner line.

The rookie pitched to a Stuff+ of 104 and Location+ of 98 in that matchup. Black owns a league-leading 1.01 ERA with Triple-A Sacramento this season, with a SO/K rate of 3.63. It's still reasonable to think Black can post league-average results this season, and it will be interesting to see if he can bounce back in a far more favorable matchup.

Cincinnati Reds

The Reds offense has been in shaky form of late. They have hit to a wRC+ of only 60 over the last 14 days, with a soft contact rate of 19.2% and a strikeout rate of 23.5%.

They have hit to a wRC+ of only 80 this season versus right-handed pitching, which is the fourth-worst mark in MLB.

Nick Lodolo has been full value to his excellent 2.79 ERA this season. His advanced metrics back it up as he has a 3.33 xERA and 3.05 xFIP, with a Stuff+ of 103 and Location+ of 101.

He has worked his curveball off his elite fastball to excellent results — batters own an xSLG of just .214 versus his hook. Opponents have a miss rate of 63% on his low breaking pitches this season, which is the best mark in baseball among pitchers who have thrown at least 14 innings.

Giants vs. Reds

Betting Pick & Prediction

Lodolo should be well situated to continue his excellent stretch in this matchup. His only down performances have come against two of the best teams (Orioles, Phillies) against left-handed pitching. The Giants are far from lefty killers, and Soler out of the mix projects them as a bottom-10 lineup versus LHP.

Black was more effective in his MLB debut than his overall stat line suggests. It was a bit of mismanagement from the Giants to try and stretch him for a couple of extra outs, and there were certainly some positives for Black to build on. He now matches up versus one of the league's worst teams versus right-handed pitching, at pitcher friendly Oracle Park.

There is a good chance both of these starting pitchers have strong outings and keep the total low at the start of this matchup. I see value betting the first five innings (F5) to go under 4 at -110, and would play to -115.

Pick: First Five Innings Under 4 -110 (bet365; Play to -115)