We all know from reading numerous analyses that the Reds probably have the upper hand in the NL Central. The Cardinals rotation is a bit of a question mark, and the Cardinals lost Chris Carpenter, Rafael Furcal, and perhaps their closer (how long will Jason Motte be out? I don’t know if I want to know the answer). But let’s compare the two teams position by position, and try and see why the Reds are the team to beat.
Johnny Cueto vs Adam Wainwright
In 2013, I expect Cueto to be quite good with a rate around 3.47 to 3.50 with an innings total probably over 200. Projections are looking like a 4 WAR pitcher. Adam Wainwright on the other hand looks to be better rate-wise at 3.22 to 3.25 for 2013 with a similar innings total. This is good for a 5 WAR projection. Advantage: Cardinals.
Mat Latos vs Jaime Garcia
My guess with Latos is a 3.42 to 3.45 rate stat and around 200 IP. The projections look to be around 3.75 WAR. Jaime Garcia, the Cards’ defacto #2 is a tick better in the rate stat...