Identifying the Odd Man Out in Cincinnati Reds' Starting Rotation

The Cincinnati Reds have added key pieces to their pitching staff this offseason, including Frankie Montas and Nick Martinez. That means there could be multiple starting pitchers from last year's team that don't make the rotation

Brandon Williamson is the first name that comes to mind. He could be the odd man out. 

Considering Williamson made the second-most starts (23) and threw the second-most innings (117.0) on the team last year, most fans will be surprised to see him out of the Opening Day starting rotation.

If everyone is healthy, though, that may very well be the case. Hunter Greene, Andrew Abbott, Frankie Montas, and Graham Ashcraft are locks. Nick Lodolo will also be a lock if he proves to be 100% healthy. That’s five. You even add in the signing of Nick Martinez and he's likely the sixth starter/long reliever in the Reds' pen. Williamson may begin the year in Triple-A Louisville.

Williamson had a brilliant 11-start stretch from July through August where he averaged almost six innings a start and posted a 3.15 ERA. He has a good fastball and a work-in-progress breaking ball that is buoyed by a strong off-speed pitch. 

There was one glaring issue with his game, though.

The Reds needed to see more from him. David Bell really limited the number of times Williamson pitched a third time through the opponent’s lineup. That is more of a league-wide philosophy, but there were other young pitchers that Bell let pitch deeper into games. Not Williamson. This is the Reds telling us they like Williamson, but they aren’t in love with his consistency.

Williamson would rack up high pitch counts early. He wasn’t necessarily getting hit or giving up walks, he was just taking way too many pitches to get outs.

Williamson is a huge part of this Reds team in 2024. He's probably the 7th-best starting pitcher in the organization. It also shows the impressive work Nick Krall has done by adding much needed depth this offseason. It’s also important that Krall didn’t bet on Williamson’s talent just getting better. There are some peripheral statistics, like quality of contact, that point to Williamson needing more work before you can trust him fully.

Williamson could still make around 15 starts this season. Hopefully the rotation can start the year healthy (and stay healthy) this season.