Originally posted on Fangraphs  |  Last updated 9/27/13

Super agent Scott Boras is known to boast about his clients’ market value, particularly as each player nears or enters free agency. Oh, Boras doesn’t come right out and give a number. Sometimes he gives a range. Sometimes he talks on background and allows a reporter to claim “Sources say Boras is looking for 5 years/$100 million for Johnny So-in-So.” This week, Boras tried to set a floor for Reds outfielder Shin-Soo Choo, who will be a free agent this winter. Jon Heyman had suggested in August – based on discussions with “baseball executives” – that Choo’s new contract could be in the $90 million to $100 million range. On Wednesday Heyman followed up, noting the considerable backlash against such a high number for Choo. And there was backlash from Boras, too. He believes $90 million to $100 million is too low for Choo. “As a custom of the industry, prognostications by executives this time of year are dramatically divergent from the real market,” Boras said in a phone interview. “I don’t think anyone correctly predicted what Jayson Werth or Carl Crawford got.” The interesting question is what Boras predicted Werth and his other clients would get. How close were Boras’ pre-contract comments with the deals he eventually negotiated for his clients?  Does he undersell? Oversell? Something in-between? We’ve taken a look by going back through media reports leading up to and during the free agency period of Boras’ biggest clients over the last 10 years. Jon Heyman reportedly has a close relationship with Boras, and it would have been easy to simply look at what Heyman wrote about these players as Boras was negotiating the deals. But we dug deeper and tried to turn up Boras statements or comments attributed to Boras. Some came from Heyman, but not all. The result is the Scott Boras-O-Meter. We can now compare the “Boras Prediction” to the contract that was signed. The “Boras Prediction” is the highest value deal floated for each of these players that could be traced back to the agent. Each prediction links to a specific media report, but for many players, there were several such reports. Player Free Agent Winter Boras Prediction Contract Carlos Beltran 2004-2005 10 yrs/$200 million  7 yrs/$119 million (Mets) Adrian Beltre 2010-2011 5 yrs/$85 million 6 yrs/$96 million (Rangers) Michael Bourn 2012-2013 $100-plus million 4 yrs/$48 million (Indians) Prince Fielder 2011-2012  8 yrs/$200 million 9 yrs/$214 million (Tigers) Matt Holliday 2009-2010 Compared to Teixeira, who signed for 8 yrs/$180 million  7 yrs/$120 million (Cardinals) Edwin Jackson 2012-2013 $15 million – $17 million per year 4 yrs/$52 million (Cubs) Andruw Jones 2007-2008  5 yrs/$100 million 2 yrs/$36.2 million (Dodgers) Derek Lowe 2008-2009 5 yrs/$90 million 4 yrs/$60 million (Braves) Daisuke Matsuzaka 2006-2007 5-6 yrs/$100 million 6 yrs/$52 million (Red Sox) (plus $51 million posting fee) Magglio Ordonez 2004-2005 7 yrs  5 yrs/$85 million (Tigers) Manny Ramirez 2008-2009 Initially rejected 2 yr/$45 million offer; Boras expected more than a 2-yr deal  2 yrs/$45 million (Dodgers) Mark Teixeira 2008-2009 10 yrsTeixeira rejected offers of $160 million 8 yrs/$180 million (Yankees) Jayson Werth 2010-2011  7 yrs/$120 million 7 yrs/$126 million (Nationals) Barry Zito 2006-2007 7 yrs 7 yrs/$126 million (Giants) Boras was off the mark with Carlos Beltran, Andruw Jones, Derek Lowe, Daisuke Matsuzaka, and Manny Ramirez, and way off the mark with Michael Bourn, who’s value plummeted last winter as a result of the Braves’ qualifying offer. But the others came close, if not in years, then in total value. It’s a good bet that the Reds will make Shin-Soo Choo a qualifying offer like the Braves did with Bourn. The question is whether Boras has figured out a way around the roadblocks he faced last winter. Take the time to read the Barry Zito link: it’s an article in USA Today from November, 2006. Boras boasts that Zito is “destined to be the finest left-handed starter since Steve Carlton by the time he’s 35.” And on Alex Rodriguez he said: “People laughed when we pointed out that Alex would hit 800 home runs in his career . . . The truth is that we underestimated.” But there are noticeable wins here too. As Boras noted, no one saw Werth getting $126 million, and $200 million for Fielder seemed unfathomable as well. He doesn’t always end up talking a team into matching his public boasts, but he gets there more often than you might think. So, $100 million for Shin-Soo Choo might sound crazy, but we shouldn’t just immediately dismiss it as an agent hyping up his player. Boras floats these numbers for a reason, and he’s very good at his job.

GET THE YARDBARKER APP:
Ios_download En_app_rgb_wo_45
MORE FROM YARDBARKER

Report: Rockets have 'serious chance' at landing Chris Paul

MotoGP qualifying for the Dutch Grand Prix saw three frightening crashes Saturday

Report: Knicks attempted to move Joakim Noah with Kristaps Porzingis

Hornets GM mistakenly introduces Dwayne Bacon as Dwyane Wade

Three A's players knock first MLB homers in the same game

LIKE WHAT YOU SEE?
GET THE DAILY NEWSLETTER:

Cuban-American businessman emerges as potential Marlins buyer

Charles Oakley: Kristaps Porzingis was ‘wrong’ to skip exit meeting

Sixers already looking to extend Joel Embiid

WATCH: Klay Thompson fails miserably attempting a 360 dunk

Jays closer Roberto Osuna says he’s dealing with anxiety

John McEnroe claims Andy Warhol ruined his sex life

Best of Yardbarker: Diana Taurasi makes history

The 'Finest running back from America’s Finest City' quiz

Players who need to turn around their season to save their teams

Sports & Politics Intersect: Washington gets a rare win

Three Up, Three Down: Flouting the written and unwritten rules of baseball

2016-17 NBA Awards: The Billy King Award for worst trade

Kicking it: David Villa isn't interested in a 'retirement tour'

Box Score 6/23: Philly continues to trust the process

The 10 best sports docs available for streaming

Feeding your roundball addiction through the summer months

The 'NBA Draft going back to school?' quiz

2016-17 NBA Awards: The Gary Payton Award for best trash talk of the year

MLB News
Delivered to your inbox
You'll also receive Yardbarker's daily Top 10, featuring the best sports stories from around the web. Customize your newsletter to get articles on your favorite sports and teams. And the best part? It's free!

By clicking "Sign Me Up", you have read and agreed to the Fox Sports Digital Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. You can opt out at any time. For more information, please see our Privacy Policy.
the YARDBARKER app
Get it now!
Ios_download En_app_rgb_wo_45

Best of Yardbarker: Diana Taurasi makes history

The 'Finest running back from America’s Finest City' quiz

2016-17 NBA Awards: The Billy King Award for worst trade

Players who need to turn around their season to save their teams

Three Up, Three Down: Flouting the written and unwritten rules of baseball

Sports & Politics Intersect: Washington gets a rare win

Kicking it: David Villa isn't interested in a 'retirement tour'

The 10 best sports docs available for streaming

Feeding your roundball addiction through the summer months

The 'NBA Draft going back to school?' quiz

Today's Best Stuff
For Publishers
Company Info
Help
Follow Yardbarker