Some of you may have been wondering whether the unexpected success of David Freese, our sole remnant left from the Jim Edmonds era, is something we can bank on. His line: .313/.386/.442, 3 home runs, 28 RBIs, and a 1.6 WAR (Wins Above Replacement value). He's on pace for 11 home runs and 98 RBIs, and he's been a monster at home this season: .403/1.101 at home, .233/.584 away.
That's not all when it comes to David Freese. He's also barely outside the top 10 (number 11) for all third basemen in UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating, learn more about the metric here). Meaning, he's in the top third of all third basemen in fielding, even above Scott Rolen and A-Rod. Clearly, his success has come from both aspects of his game.
The main question is, is D-Freese for real? While it may be just a result of me ignorantly drinking the Cardinals Kool-aid, I think so. When looking at his numbers, there aren't any huge anomalies that stick out as red flags, other than the oh-so-loved BABIP that's mentioned here so much. His BABIP is a healthy .393, the fourth-highest in all of baseball, behind Austin Jackson, Jason Morneau, and Austin Kearns. Very rarely do players finish the season with such an extraordinarily high BABIP; David Wright did it last year, finishing with a .394 BABIP, but high BABIP's are usually reserved for players who manufacture a lot of their hits through speed or sheer power. Freese doesn't have a lot of either, so it's plausible to think he will hit a little bit of a decline later this season.
Still, it doesn't seem like there are any other tell-tales that this season is a fluke. His BB% is right in line with where it's always been, his isolated power is pretty far below where it's always been, his contact rates don't scream lucky, and his K% is just about the same as well. A big indicator of his success could be his line drive percentage, which is up from 12% to 21.6% this year. Line drives typically land as hits, so a number like that is good to see.
As for defense, I trust UZR a lot, and I also don't think it's a number that can be influenced too greatly by luck. It's a skill stat, and Freese has done surprisingly well manning the hot corner.
Ultimately, I expect David to regress a little bit. He's still fairly green in the MLB, and teams may not have figured out the best way to pitch to him yet. There will come a time when he starts to struggle, but, for now, I think we have ourselves a keeper.
Original Story:
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That's not all when it comes to David Freese. He's also barely outside the top 10 (number 11) for all third basemen in UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating, learn more about the metric here). Meaning, he's in the top third of all third basemen in fielding, even above Scott Rolen and A-Rod. Clearly, his success has come from both aspects of his game.
The main question is, is D-Freese for real? While it may be just a result of me ignorantly drinking the Cardinals Kool-aid, I think so. When looking at his numbers, there aren't any huge anomalies that stick out as red flags, other than the oh-so-loved BABIP that's mentioned here so much. His BABIP is a healthy .393, the fourth-highest in all of baseball, behind Austin Jackson, Jason Morneau, and Austin Kearns. Very rarely do players finish the season with such an extraordinarily high BABIP; David Wright did it last year, finishing with a .394 BABIP, but high BABIP's are usually reserved for players who manufacture a lot of their hits through speed or sheer power. Freese doesn't have a lot of either, so it's plausible to think he will hit a little bit of a decline later this season.
Still, it doesn't seem like there are any other tell-tales that this season is a fluke. His BB% is right in line with where it's always been, his isolated power is pretty far below where it's always been, his contact rates don't scream lucky, and his K% is just about the same as well. A big indicator of his success could be his line drive percentage, which is up from 12% to 21.6% this year. Line drives typically land as hits, so a number like that is good to see.
As for defense, I trust UZR a lot, and I also don't think it's a number that can be influenced too greatly by luck. It's a skill stat, and Freese has done surprisingly well manning the hot corner.
Ultimately, I expect David to regress a little bit. He's still fairly green in the MLB, and teams may not have figured out the best way to pitch to him yet. There will come a time when he starts to struggle, but, for now, I think we have ourselves a keeper.
Original Story:
http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/Rockin...
