Is it time to pass the mantle of leadoff hitter to Davis Schneider?

Since arriving via free agency in 2021, George Springer has been the Toronto Blue Jays’ go-to leadoff hitter over the last four seasons, including ’24. But has the time come to make a permanent switch for a club desperate for improved run creation, particularly atop the batting order?

The leadoff spot and Springer have spent plenty of time together since ’21. Of the 1,769 plate appearances he’s logged as a Blue Jay, 1,555 have come as the table setter for the rest of the batting order. No other player — past or present — has come within a sniffing distance of him in that time, with former Blue Jay Marcus Semien the next highest on the list at 403.

Of course, hitting first is a role Springer has maintained from his days with the Houston Astros, where he was a sparkplug in the No. 1 hole for most of his seven seasons with the franchise. There, he routinely changed the score in the first inning with one swing and, albeit with reduced frequency, has done so for Toronto, too. That has led to 57 career leadoff home runs, trailing only Rickey Henderson’s 81 for most all-time.

But as sparkling as Springer’s resume is as one of the best leadoff hitters this sport has ever seen, his offensive production has been on a sharp, dramatic decline since the beginning of last season.

From 2019-22, the right-handed-hitting outfielder slashed .274/.360/.536 while accounting for a 143 wRC+ in 384 games split between the Astros and Blue Jays. He crushed 21 home runs in ’23, reaching the 20-home-run mark for the seventh consecutive season — excluding 2020. However, he was just four per cent above league average per wRC+ and registered career-lows in OBP (.327), SLG (.405) and wOBA (.320) despite playing 154 contests, the second-highest of his career.

As disappointing as last year was, the four-time All-Star is off to a horrific start this season, hitting just .200/.273/.290 with three home runs and a miserable 66 wRC+ across 37 games. And he hasn’t shown any reason for optimism with his underlying metrics, as he sits below the 50th percentile in almost every quality-of-contact metric, including xSLG (.378), xwOBA (.308), average exit velocity (87.3 m.p.h.), hard-hit rate (35.9 per cent) and barrel rate (6.0 per cent).

All but one of Springer’s 161 plate appearances have come as Toronto’s leadoff hitter this season. Given that he’s occupied 87 per cent of the total reps at that spot, it shouldn’t be difficult to guess where this team’s offensive production from the top of the lineup ranks throughout the majors — it’s squarely in the basement.

This lack of success probably wouldn’t be front and centre — at least as much as it’s been thus far — if the Blue Jays were piling up wins on the backs of their two franchise cornerstones, Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. But since runs have been tough to come by, as have series victories of late, the time for waiting for Springer to get going is over — or it should be.

Much of Toronto’s fan base has clamoured for change in the leadoff spot for weeks, even months back to last season. Those cries have been answered recently as Springer’s missed time due to an illness, thrusting Davis Schneider up the order with a much-deserved promotion.

It hasn’t been all rainbows and butterflies thus far, considering Schneider has gone 0-for-8 with three strikeouts in two of the three games he’s led off. That middle game of the three, though, is one where he imposed his will on the Minnesota Twins last Saturday.

At a time when the Blue Jays once trailed 7-1, last year’s rookie sensation was a primary source of offence, recording his first three-hit performance of 2024 — the fourth of his young career. He was responsible for a third of the club’s 10 runs, including his fifth-inning solo shot that helped spark a badly-needed comeback effort.