In 2011, Jered Weaver had an outstanding year, finishing 5th among pitchers in ESPN's Player Rater (his second year in a row finishing in the top 10) with a 2.41 ERA, a 1.01 WHIP and 198 strikeouts.
However, there are troubling signs that a repeat is very unlikely. Weaver had a 82.6 LOB%, a .250 BABIP, and a 6.3% HR/FB ratio. All of these stats are affected to some degree by luck and are well outside the league averages. They were all his career bests among years where he completed a whole season. The difference between Weaver's xFIP of 3.80 and his ERA of 2.41 was one of the highest in the majors. All of this indicates that Weaver was very lucky this past season, and should experience at least some form of regression this year. Weaver could very very have a good year, but it seems highly improbable that he will keep his ERA below 3.00.
To make matters worse Weaver's outstanding strikeout rate of 9.35 K/9 in 2010 declined to 7.56 in 2011 which is much more in line with...
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