Jeremy Hellickson And The Red Flag Above His Head

Last week we expressed some concern over Jeremy Hellickson and the 24 percent increase in innings pitched he had last season over the year before. When young pitchers show that large of an increase in workload, there is some evidence to suggest that they are more at risk for a down season or even injury. And now Tom Verducci confirms our concerns. Verducci lists Hellboy as one of 14 young pitchers on “The Red Flag List.” But he does note that the Rays did a good job of taking care of their young starter… The Rays have their own rule of thumb. They generally prefer to bump their pitchers’ workload by no more than 20 percent annually. (Price took a playoff-influenced 36 percent jump in 2010 and saw his ERA swell by 0.77 last year.) For Hellickson, the 20 percent rule would have meant an increase of 31 innings, so he was not far off their target, even with a pennant race and the postseason (one start lasting four innings) influencing his work. The Rays also did ...