Yesterday, we learned that Cleveland Indians closer Chris Perez’ agent is talking to the Tribe about his contract for next season. Perez, 25, is eligible for arbitration for the first time this season, and both sides are presumably hoping to avoid an actual hearing. This, of course, leads us to the million (or more!) dollar question: how much would it take to sign him?
From BleacherReport.com
A general rule of thumb for first-year arbitration-eligible players is that they get around 40 percent of what they would earn on the open market. The record award for a first-year arb player is the $10 million Ryan Howard got in 2008, after he had already made an All-Star appearance and won Silver Slugger, Rookie of the Year, and Most Valuable Player awards; to put that in perspective, Howard’s teammate Raul Ibanez got over $12 million in 2010 to post 1.8 WAR. Last winter, after winning his second consecutive NL Cy Young, Tim Lincecum sought $13 million through arbitration—or, $5.5 million less than his teammate Barry Zito earned while pitching significantly worse.
Pegging Perez’ value is difficult because the market for relief pitchers is volatile at best. Perez’ résumé makes the situation even more confusing—he’s coming off a fantastic season in which he accumulated 23 saves while posting a 1.71 ERA, including a phenomenal 0.63 figure after the All-Star Break, but that’s a big drop from the 3.92 ERA he posted in two prior seasons. His 3.54 FIP (more than double his ERA) is a hint that perhaps he got lucky. It’s hard to be an elite pitcher with a career walk rate of 4.3 BB/9.
In addition, closers get paid significantly more than other relievers, and while there’s no question that Perez is the Indians’ ninth-inning man going forward, he has only a couple months experience as the club’s fireman. He was the temporary closer at the beginning of the year when Kerry Wood was on the DL, and didn’t start finishing games regularly until Wood got hurt again in July. Not until Wood was traded to the New York Yankees at the deadline did Perez become the official closer.
The most comparable player I can think of who recently went through the arbitration process is Los Angeles Dodgers closer Jonathan Broxton. Heading into arbitration for the first time in 2009, Broxton was also entrenched as the club’s closer, though, like Perez, he had held the role for less than three months. He also had his share of control problems (3.6 BB/9).
That said, Broxton’s résumé was better than Perez’ is. He had a 3.02 ERA and 145 ERA+ in 241 innings, to Perez’ 3.06 ERA, 134 ERA+, and 161.2 innings. Both are high-strikeout, high-walk guys, though Broxton had superior control and was better at missing bats (11.4 K/9 to Perez’ 9.5). Also, Perez’ average fastball last year was 94.6 mph and trending down from his MLB debut; in 2008, Broxton averaged 96.3 mph, and his velocity was rising.
Broxton ultimately signed for $1.825 million (how they got to an amount that specific I’ll never know), giving him an estimated market value of $4.563 million. Unfortunately, Perez will probably seek more than that. If Joaquin Benoit, who is eight years older, injury prone, has a much higher career ERA (4.47) and isn’t a closer can get $5.5 million a year for three years in this market, good luck getting Perez to settle for less than $2 million.
Given inflation, the bloated contracts we’ve seen this winter, and the fact that the arbitrators who would decide Perez’ salary if the two sides can’t work out a deal care much more about his 1.71 ERA and 23 saves than his 4.30 xFIP and .236 BABIP, it would probably take somewhere in the neighborhood of $2-2.5 million to get a deal done, maybe more. My gut says $2.325 million, though my brain thinks that might end up being a little low.
Of course, with the team already reduced to looking for free agent fill-ins from the bargain bin, it’s unlikely that the Perez negotiations will have any effect on the team’s offseason agenda (or lack thereof). I just hope we can still afford Nick Punto.
Original Story:
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