MLB best bets: Odds, expert picks, predictions for Tue. 5/14

Blue Jays vs. Orioles

Tuesday, May 14, 6:35 p.m. ET, MLB.TV
Orioles ML (-160, Bet365)

By Tanner McGrath

When did Kyle Bradish become an Action Network Guy?

When he started throwing sinkers!

Bradish pitches from the rubber's first-base side, and his over-the-top release means his four-seam fastball comes in flat and easily hittable. As a result, the four-seam has been consistently hit hard, with hitters slugging .600 off the pitch last season.

So, he stopped throwing it, leaning into his half-decent, high-velocity (95 mph on average) sinker that’s pretty good at forcing ground balls (60% last season, close to 90% this year).

But it’s Kyle’s secondary stuff that makes him special. Bradish throws a slider-curveball mix about 40% of the time, and both check in with a Stuff+ mark over 130. The slider has 12 inches of glove-side break and consistently forces a 20% swinging-strike rate, while the 12-6 curveball drops off the face of the planet.

So, when Kyle doesn’t throw his flat four-seam and instead leans on two breaking balls, he’s a legit top-of-the-line starter. And in his last start, he put zero four-seamers in play, ripped off eight combined whiffs on the slider and curveball, posted a 34% CSW rate and struck out nine Nationals across five one-run innings in a 7-2 Orioles win.

He’s pitching well, and I expect him to take advantage of a Blue Jays lineup that continues to flail.

Conversely, the O’s continue mashing. They’re the model of an excellent batted-ball profile, pulling 50% of their balls over the past two weeks for 16 homers and a .181 ISO. They’re top two or three in every primary batted-ball indicator. Adley Rutschman pulled two homers just last night.

And they’re facing a friendly face in Chris Bassitt, who they walloped for 12 runs on 18 hits over nine innings across two starts last season.

Bassitt enters Tuesday with an ERA and an expected ERA north of 5.00 in 42 innings. His walk rate is over 10% because his strike rate is down around 2% from last season. He pairs it with a mediocre batted-ball profile.

As an aside, the Orioles can keep up defensively, as they rank in the top 10 in all the main defensive metrics. Gunnar Henderson and Jackson Holliday make up a formidable middle-infield duo, while Colton Cowser and Cedric Mullins are excellent outfielders.

In the later innings: over the past two weeks, the Orioles bullpen boasts an ERA under two and a WHIP under one. Conversely, the Jays relievers boast a 6.25 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP during that stretch.

So, I’ll take Bradish and the hard-hitting O’s against Chris Bassitt and the soft-hitting Jays at anything better than -170.

Pick: Orioles ML (-160 | Play to -170)

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Nationals vs. White Sox

Tuesday, May 14, 7:40 p.m. ET, MLB.TV
Under 8.5 (-105, Bet365)

By D.J. James

This Chicago White Sox team has not been as embarrassing lately, but this is still one of the worst teams in baseball.

Erick Fedde will be a nice deadline piece for whichever team trades for him. Fedde owns a 3.00 ERA and a 3.66 expected ERA. He has lowered his Average Exit Velocity and Hard-Hit rate allowed. A stint in the KBO helped him dramatically.

His opponent will be Mitchell Parker and the Washington Nationals. Parker has been pretty serviceable for the Nats in 27 innings with a 2.67 ERA and 3.36 expected ERA. He induces grounders and doesn't walk anyone.

Lucky for him, the White Sox hit plenty of ground balls and only boast a 4.6% walk rate against lefties across the past month.

Similarly, the Sox have a team wRC+ of only 63 off of lefties since April 14. The Nationals are better with an 89 wRC+ off righties, but both teams are far below average.

The White Sox don't have a great relief staff. They have struck out less than 20% of hitters in the last month. However, Jordan Leasure, Michael Kopech, John Brebbia, Tanner Banks, and Tim Hill have been solid. The Nats have a reliever expected FIP under 4.00 in the last month, so they will be fine against the White Sox.

There won't be much offense in this game.

Pick: Under 8.5 (-105) | Play to 7.5 (-110)

Yankees vs. Twins

Tuesday, May 14, 7:40 p.m. ET, MLB.TV
Chris Paddack Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+110, DraftKings)

By Tony Sartori

Minnesota hands the ball to right-hander Chris Paddack on Tuesday evening and should be a good fade candidate. He possesses a fade-worthy 4.34 ERA and 1.50 WHIP through seven starts this season.

Based on his underlying metrics, positive regression is unlikely for Paddack as he ranks in the league's bottom half in expected ERA, expected batting average allowed, average exit velocity allowed, barrel rate allowed, and hard-hit rate allowed.

Specifically, we'll fade the right-hander in the strikeout department as he ranks in the league's bottom half in both whiff and strikeout rates.

Meanwhile, New York's lineup boasts MLB's sixth-lowest strikeout rate while striking out less against righties.

Pick: Chris Paddack Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+110)

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Guardians vs. Rangers

Tuesday, May 14, 8:05 p.m. ET, MLB.TV
Rangers ML (-115, Bet365)

By John Feltman

The Rangers got blanked at home on Monday evening, 7-0, in the series' first game against Guardians. They look to quickly turn things around when their prize pitching prospect, Jack Leiter, takes the mound against Ben Lively.

Leiter has not lived up to the hype since leaping the minors, with an ERA over 12 through his first two starts. It has not been pretty, but I'm not ready to give up on him.

Meanwhile, Ben Lively enters the matchup with a sparkling 2.63 ERA. Do not let that fool you, folks, as his metrics suggest he is due for a significant regression.

Lively is inducing a meager 26% ground-ball rate with an alarming 86.6% strand rate. He is generating a decent number of strikeouts, but those metrics are a big reason his expected FIP is nearly double his current ERA (4.19).

I expect the roof to be open on a warm night in Texas. With a total sitting at 9.5, I think the Ranger bats will force Lively's looming regression.

Even if Leiter struggles, I will gladly take my chances with the Rangers bats to snap out of their funk after being blanked on Monday evening.

Pick: Rangers ML (-115)

Cardinals vs. Angels

Tuesday, May 14, 9:38 p.m. ET, MLB.TV
Angels F5 +0.5 (-130, FanDuel)

By John Feltman

The Los Angeles Angels are a shell of themselves lately with the mountain of injuries they have sustained thus far in 2024. The skeleton lineup they consistently send out each night has opposing pitchers licking their chops.

However, they have a very underrated, talented south-paw starting pitcher in Reid Detmers, who gets the ball for them on Tuesday night against the Cardinals. Detmers owns a 4.96 ERA entering the matchup but has been a victim of a lot of misfortune. Detmers possesses a terrific 15.4% swinging strike rate and a 32 CSW%.

Not only that, but he faces a Cardinals lineup that has struggled mightily against left-handed pitching. The Cards have an OPS below .560 and a .184 batting average against southpaws.

Sonny Gray should continue his early season success against the weak Halos lineup, but I am more than happy to take the risk that he has a rough inning early on with Detmers in my back pocket.

It's also possible that the game is scoreless through five, so I'd much rather take my chances with the Halos first-five innings spread instead of paying a heavily juiced first-five innings under.

Pick: Angels F5 +0.5 (-130)

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Reds vs. Diamondbacks

Tuesday, May 14, 9:40 p.m. ET, MLB.TV
Reds F5 ML (-105, Bet365)

By John Feltman

Some of you might be second-guessing yourselves when diving into this matchup, and that is because we had the same pitching matchup just a mere five days ago.

The Reds and D-Backs faced off at Great American Ballpark last week, and these two teams are back at it after a weekend series in between.

The Reds lost last Thursday to the Snakes despite a terrific pitching effort from Hunter Greene. Meanwhile, Slade Cecconi left a lot of pitches in the middle of the plate and, fortunately, escaped mostly unscathed.

Cecconi is a ticking time bomb, as he currently has a .164 BABIP against. Not only is that outrageously low, but his 35% ground-ball rate is another red flag since he does not miss many bats.

There is no telling when Cecconi's luck will run out, but what is occurring right now is entirely unsustainable. Greene continues to improve as he blossoms into a top-of-the-rotation talent, but he needs to be more efficient with his pitch count.

Even if Greene is not as sharp as last week, I still like the Reds bats to take advantage of Cecconi's inability to limit contact finally.

I'd much rather trust the Reds in the first-five innings instead of betting on their horrendous bullpen.

Pick: Reds F5 ML (-105)