MLB best bets: Odds, expert picks, predictions Monday 5/13

Cubs vs. Braves

Monday, May 13, 7:20 p.m. ET, MLB.TV
Under 7.5 (-104, FanDuel)

By Tanner McGrath

Here are two starting pitchers that I am uber-high on.

It’s hard to overstate how good Shota Imanaga has been. He’s allowed only five earned runs through seven starts. He ranks 18th among qualified pitchers in strikeout rate (27%), but I expect more to come given he’s eighth in swinging-strike rate (17%), headlined by a nearly-unhittable splitter (28% swinging-strike rate).

His fastball and general stuff profile leaves something to be desired, but he’s locating so well (106 Location+, 3% walk rate) that it almost doesn’t matter. And while he’s not forcing too many ground balls (36%), he’s inducing plenty of weak contact (5% barrel rate, 38% hard-hit rate).

Imanaga is an ace, evidenced by his 2.31 expected ERA.

Meanwhile, I’ve enjoyed watching Reynaldo Lopez move into Atlanta’s rotation. He’s taken some juice off his fastball (from 98 mph on average to 95), focusing more on location and longevity. He’s turning into a true six-inning starter, something he’s done in four of six starts this year.

His 1.53 ERA isn’t sustainable, but he should pitch around his 3.02 FIP/3.72 expected ERA. He’s still got an excellent, more-than-dependable slider (29% usage, 112 Stuff+, 23% swinging-strike rate), which should play against a Chicago lineup that ranks 17th in Weighted Slider Runs Created (-1.8).

While it’s always scary fading these two lineups, the Cubs and Braves are slumping. Over the past two weeks, the Cubs rank 14th in wRC+ (97), while the Braves rank dead last (66). This isn’t sustainable for two excellent lineups, but I’m willing to fade colder bats against two red-hot, higher-echelon starters.

I’m a little iffy on both bullpens, especially when both are a tad extended.

Still, these are two above-average defenses – especially the Cubs, who rank sixth among MLB fielding corps in Defensive Runs Saved (36) behind the excellent middle-infield duo of Dansby Swanson and Nico Hoerner.

Meanwhile, the weather is playing in our favor today, with low-60s temperatures and near-double-digit breezes blowing in from right-center field, hopefully knocking down fly balls against two somewhat-fly-ball pitchers – BallParkPal’s weather model projects a -7% run factor for Truist Park today, including a -11% home run factor and -14% extra-base-hit factor.

I’d project this total closer to 7.3 and play Under 7.5 at -105 or better.

Pick: Under 7.5 (-104) | Play to 7.5 (-105)

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Pirates vs. Brewers

Monday, May 13, 7:40 p.m. ET, MLB.TV
Mitch Keller Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-160, BetMGM)

By Tony Sartori

Pittsburgh hands the ball to right-hander Mitch Keller on Monday against the Brewers, and he should be a good fade candidate.

Keller owns a 4.41 ERA and 1.33 WHIP through eight starts this season.

His underlying metrics are even worse, as the right-hander ranks in the 29th percentile or lower among qualified pitchers in expected ERA, expected batting average allowed and hard-hit rate allowed.

Specifically, I'm looking to fade Keller in the strikeout prop market, given he ranks in the 20th percentile in whiff rate and 41st percentile in strikeout rate.

Keller has cashed over 6.5 strikeouts in only three of his eight starts this year (38%) and in just 28 of his past 71 (39%) dating back to 2022.

I'd imagine the trends continue against Milwaukee, a lineup with a meager 23% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching.

Pick: Mitch Keller Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-160) | Play to 5.5 (+120)

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Dodgers vs. Giants

Monday, May 13, 9:45 p.m. ET, MLB.TV
Jordan Hicks Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-130, DraftKings)

By Cody Goggin

Jordan Hicks appears to have successfully made the transition to being a full-time starter after serving in the back end of the St. Louis bullpen for years.

The hard-throwing right-hander has dialed back his velocity to preserve his arm for longer outings.

In his first season with the Giants, Hicks has a 2.30 ERA and 3.49 expected ERA in eight starts. He's struck out 35 batters in 43 innings, which is naturally well below his previous career rates when coming out of the bullpen.

Still, Hicks has five or more strikeouts in five of his eight starts this season. He's eaten up five innings in seven of those starts while allowing more than two earned runs in a start only once.

The Dodgers are an elite offense, but they're closer to average in the strikeout department (21%, 11th-lowest among MLB lineups). I don't think Hicks will struggle to generate whiffs, and he should record four punchouts if he lasts five innings.

This is one of the larger edges of the day in my strikeout model. I project Hicks for an average of 4.96 strikeouts with a median of 5.0, so I would have expected this line to be set closer to there.

Instead, you can bet Hicks to go over 3.5 strikeouts at -130, which I believe is a good bet based on my model. I would take this up to -155.

Pick: Jordan Hicks Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-130) | Play to 3.5 (-155)

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