MLB best bets: Tigers vs. Mets odds, pick, predictions for Thursday 4/4

Tigers vs. Mets Odds

Thursday, April 4, 12:10 p.m. ET, MLB.TV

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

Detroit Tigers

Pitching is the reason for the Tigers' early season success. Detroit held the White Sox to two or fewer runs in two of three games and then blanked the Mets in the opener of this series. The Tigers bullpen is also nasty. In fact, lefty Andrew Chafin is the only regular to give up an earned run so far. Closer Jason Foley, Shelby Miller and Alex Faedo have combined for 10 scoreless innings out of the 'pen. Foley is dominant, featuring a devastating sinker that ranges from 99-101 mph. He's nearly unhittable, so the Mets will need to jump on the Tigers early.

Offensively, it's a different story for the Tigers, who only have four hitters with an OPS above .800. Kerry Carpenter's dominant hitting is no fluke. He crushed right-handed pitching last year and continues making strides at the dish.

Taking the ball for the first time in over 600 days is former No. 1 overall pick Casey Mize. The right hander looked promising in his final three spring starts as he tossed 13 2/3 innings of one-run ball, yielding just six hits and fanning 14 in the process.

New York Mets

The Mets' offense is a complete catastrophe. Three lineup mainstays have morphed into arguably the worst-hitting trio in baseball — Francisco Lindor (-18 wRC+), Jeff McNeil (-50 wRC+) and Brandon Nimmo (-17 wRC). McNeil and Nimmo are notorious for drawing out counts and making opposing pitchers work, so it's strange to see them swinging early in counts and letting pitchers off easily.

That said, it's been just four games. Slumping at the start of the season isn't ideal, but it's not the end of the world, nor is it an indictment of how Lindor, Nimmo and McNeil will perform over 162 games.

Adrian Houser will make his Mets debut on the mound after spending his entire career with the Brewers. Houser is a soft-tossing righty who generates a fair amount of ground balls and rarely issues walks. Houser is nothing special, but there's a real value to guys who post innings and get outs — it doesn't need to be pretty, outs all count the same. A season ago, Houser posted a 4.12 ERA with a 3.99 FIP, which shows that there was a bit of bad luck involved in his results.

Cue the trumpets for Edwin Diaz, who is back to close out ballgames after suffering a devastating knee injury during the 2023 World Baseball Classic that caused him to miss all of last season. Diaz is the most dominant closer in baseball and has tossed a clean two innings since returning.

Tigers vs. Mets

Betting Pick & Prediction

I'm fading Mize. I could see Mize getting it together eventually, but the nerves and adrenaline that come with returning from a long absence are akin to debuting for the first time. The Mets could jump on Mize quickly, and Houser loves converting quick outs when working with a lead.

Pick: Mets Moneyline