MLB best bets: Yankees vs. Rays odds, pick, predictions for Sun. 5-12

Yankees vs. Rays Odds

Sunday, May 12, 1:40 p.m. ET, MLB.TV

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

New York Yankees

The Yankees will hand the ball to a surprising performer — right-handed flame thrower Luis Gil. The 25-year-old faced a tall task — stepping in for the injured Gerrit Cole — but has posted a dazzling 2.92 ERA over 37 innings. Gil is a maven at generating ugly swings and has a 29% strikeout rate with an expected batting average against of .176. However, Gil does have a 15% walk rate and ranks in just the sixth percentile in that category.

Gil's propensity to pitch deep into counts limits his length. He's only gone six innings in two of his seven starts, but the Yankees have the best bullpen ERA in the league.

The Yankees' bullpen is a force to be reckoned with. All-Star closer Clay Holmes has yet to allow a run (17 innings). The rest of the 'pen features a mixture of veteran arms like Luke Weaver, Ian Hamilton, Caleb Ferguson and Nick Burdi. The strong stable of arms backing up Gil allows him to let it loose for five innings with his best stuff.

Remember when Aaron Judge hit below .200 for the first three weeks of this year? That's long ago. Judge's average is .375 and his OPS has been over 1.400 in the past seven games. He's also homered three times in that span. He's back to his true form. With Judge in sync and Juan Soto posting an insane 184 wRC+, the Yankees have arguably the most patient and fearsome tandem in baseball.

The Yankees' 117 wRC+ ranks second in baseball, only behind the Dodgers (130). The Yankees' lineup is deeper with Alex Verdugo and the emergence of Anthony Volpe. Teams don't want Soto and Judge to beat them, but the supporting hitters beat them, too.

Tampa Bay Rays

The Rays are 20-20 and account for four of the White Sox 10 wins this year. It's bizarre to see a typically great team struggle. So, what's gone wrong?

The Rays' offense has undergone major struggles. They rank 17th in wRC+ with both a walk rate and a strikeout rate in the bottom 10. The Rays are known for making pitchers work, but it has been a totally different tale this season. Plus, Yandy Diaz and Randy Arozarena, two All-Stars from 2023, have wRC+ numbers below 80. Arozarena finally got on track with a three-run homer Saturday, but he's been among the worst hitters in MLB. Perhaps the homer is the jolt he needs to get going.

Kevin Cash and the Rays have a niche for finding pitchers other teams didn't want and turning them into great pitchers. The latest is Tyler Alexander, who's starting on Sunday. However, the results haven't been there yet.

After the Tigers DFA'd Alexander, the Rays nabbed him for nothing, and he's posted a 4.97 ERA over 32 2/3 innings. He's a soft-tossing left-hander with good off-speed pitches, but the Yankees should fare well against him.

Yankees vs. Rays

Betting Pick & Prediction

The Yankees' lineup is lightyears better than the Rays, and Gil is more trustworthy than Alexander. That said, Tropicana Field is a house of horrors for the Bronx Bombers. But this year's Rays team is different from the past few years. Gil will settle into a groove and the best bullpen in baseball will shut the door.

Pick: Yankees Moneyline