MLB HR props: Keep it rollin' with Nolan

Shoutout to our boys Kenta Maeda and Luis Castillo for flying past their strikeout totals last night! Our 6+ for each turned out to be a bit conservative, but that was a nice way to begin the week. It's Tuesday, so we venture back into the long-ball market to try and find us some dingers.

Hankering for some homers

We've got our eyes on two games today that seem ripe for HRs, and for once we're throwing out weather considerations for one of them — we need to mix up this approach!

Colorado vs. Washington

Typically we'd like to see high-heat and prevailing winds leading to an increase in homers, but that isn't quite the case here in D.C., BallparkPal projects just a 1% boost to the long ball. Our desire to target this game comes from who is on the mound.

Of the day's starters, Austin Gomber and Trevor Williams are at the top of homers allowed. Gomber has let 22 bombs leave the ballpark, and Williams has allowed 20 of his own. That to us is a trend worth targeting.

Stone Garrett caught our eye, he has one homer in three plate appearances against Gomber and hits lefties better for power, but for only having three HRs in his last 30 games, we're not seeing the value.

Instead, we're liking Nolan Jones. 

Jones has four HRs in his last eight games and two in his past three, including yesterday right here in Washington. Jones hits righties better, both in average and his slugging, and that's checking all the boxes we need for this market. We're riding the hot bat against a soft pitcher. Keep it rollin' Nolan.

Betting: Nolan Jones HR (+420 FanDuel)

Mets vs. Yankees

We can't leave weather out of it entirely so in slots the Subway Series, which has a 20% projected boost coming for home runs.

Daniel Vogelbach is worth mentioning, he hit a homer three games ago, has one HR in five PA vs. Domingo German, and all six of his long-bombs have come off righties. He's not our guy here, however.

That would be Giancarlo Stanton.

Stanton has four HRs in his past nine games and three homers in his past five at Yankee Stadium. In 14 PA against Justin Verlander, Stanton has knocked two HRs, and 78% of the homers that Verlander has allowed this season have come from righty bats. We'll take Stanton here at a solid price to add another homer to his resume vs. Verlander.

Betting: Giancarlo Stanton HR (+360 DraftKings best price, +280 FD for promotion)

In the news ...

Saquon Barkley agrees to one-year deal with Giants — Well, that drama was put to bed quickly. After some, us included, wondered if Saquon Barkley might hold out into the regular season, the Giants and their star running back have agreed to a one-year deal worth up to $11M. No longer set to be a topic of conversation at training camp, New York can turn its attention towards getting back to the playoffs after its 9-7-1 season in 2022. The Giants are +160 to make the playoffs, and Barkley is +5000 to win Offensive Player of the Year.

Raiders sign former All-Pro corner Marcus Peters — The Las Vegas Raiders have made a move to shore up their secondary, inking former All-Pro CB Marcus Peters to a one-year deal. Peters is 30 and has been to three Pro Bowls and named to two All-Pro teams. The former Defensive Rookie of the Year figures to slot in as Las Vegas' top corner, though he did regress a bit in 2022 following an ACL injury in 2021. The Raiders are currently the favorites to finish last in their division at -130.

Bills lose Nyheim Hines for the season — Versatile running back Nyheim Hines, whom Buffalo traded for last year, was hit by a jet ski and will miss the entire 2023 season. Hines played a role for the Bills both in a pass-catching role and as their primary kick and punt returner. 

Today's Bark Bets is written by Griffin Carroll