Arizona Diamondbacks first baseman Christian Walker. Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports

MLB Playoff picks: Best bets for Phillies vs. Diamondbacks NLCS Game 1

By Jack Dougherty | Last updated 10/16/23

After a long weekend away from baseball, the NLCS will finally begin Monday night when the Philadelphia Phillies host the Arizona Diamondbacks at Citizens Bank Park. Both teams will deploy their aces for Game 1, as Zach Wheeler and Zac Gallen are set to do battle against two red-hot lineups.

Let's attack Game 1 with a two-pack of best bets for the start of the NLCS.

Over 7 (-120 DraftKings)

This total is so low because Wheeler and Gallen will be on the mound, but it's hard to ignore how good both offenses have been in the postseason. The Diamondbacks lead MLB in runs per game (6.0), home runs (13) and stolen bases (nine) in the playoffs, while the Phillies lead the league in OPS (.892) and RBIs (31).

Wheeler has been lights out in October, but he did give up eight hits and four runs in his only home start against the D-Backs this season. Four Arizona starters are batting better than .300 against Wheeler. As for Gallen, he's 2-0 so far in the playoffs but gave up two earned runs in both starts.

Philadelphia is averaging 6.0 runs per game at home in the postseason, while Arizona is averaging 6.5 runs per game on the road. This total is too low.

Christian Walker to record an RBI (+200 FanDuel)

Not many MLB hitters get excited to face Wheeler, but Christian Walker sure does.

In 17 career at-bats against the Phillies ace, Walker is batting .529 and slugging .882 with three doubles and a home run. The first baseman led the Diamondbacks with 33 home runs and 103 RBIs in the regular season, and he's recorded at least one RBI in four of five playoff games this year.

This offense goes as Walker goes, so if we're expecting there to be runs in this game, Walker should be able to get in on the action.

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