MLB Win-Loss Totals: Is 2023 the year the Tampa Bay Rays regress?

As always, the AL East is no pushover. The Yankees are obviously always in the mix, the Blue Jays are no longer an under-the-radar team, Baltimore is full of young talent, and Boston reloaded this winter in free agency. Three teams out of the East made the postseason, and we expect the same to happen this year, but only two teams finished with more than 89 wins, and we also expect that to happen again this year. Tampa Bay finished in third behind New York and Toronto, and we don't see Tampa finishing better than third in the East again this year.

From top to bottom, the Rays are pretty much the same team they were a year ago and won only 86 games. Expecting Tampa Bay to increase its win total by three games scares us, especially with a lineup that struggled to consistently score and without veteran center fielder Kevin Kiermaier. For what Kiermaier lacked in offensive production, he more than made up for with his glove and clubhouse leadership. Tampa finished in the bottom five of the AL in home runs, slugging percentage and OPS and was in the lower third of MLB in runs scored, but fortunately for the Rays, their pitching was superb. Tampa Bay can't afford to rely on its pitching staff as much as it did last year again this year.

Wander Franco is a budding superstar, but he's yet to play 100+ games in a season, and that's a major concern. Tampa Bay needs him to be healthy and even though he's only been in the league for two seasons, his durability is a bit of a concern. Randy Arozarena and Brandon Lowe had breakout rookie campaigns, but both regressed last year, and Tampa Bay can't have that repeat itself in 2023. 

Remember we mentioned how good the Rays pitching was last year? Here's just a couple of numbers that validate exactly how good they were. Tampa Bay finished with the fourth best ERA in baseball, and the main reason why — they issued the fewest number of walks in baseball. We don't question Tampa Bay's pitching, but one or two injuries here and there, and Tampa's starting staff all of sudden goes from great to good. And with an offense that struggled to score last year, that's a problem.

Getting Tyler Glasnow back will certainly help an already stacked starting rotation, but can he make 20+ starts is a fair question to ask, especially since he's never done it. Shane McClanahan is clearly a Cy Young-caliber pitcher after a monster 2022 season and they'll need him to be just as good as he was last year again this year, and the same goes for Drew Rasmussen and Jeffrey Springs. Losing Corey Kluber in free agency certainly isn't the end of the world, but it's not a snap of the finger fix either. And same goes for reliever Brooks Raley. The Rays starting staff is elite, we know that, but in order for them to get to the top of the AL East, they'll need to be even better this year, and we're not so sure that happens. 

The bullpen is good too, just not quite as good as the starting rotation. Tampa relievers posted the seventh-best ERA in baseball, struck out the third-most hitters in baseball, but one concern still exists — they don't have a clear-cut closer. Tampa went with the "closer by committee" approach last year, and no matter what any manager says, that's not a long-term recipe for success. Pete Fairbanks, Jason Adam, Colin Poche, Shawn Armstrong and Jalen Beeks are all really good relievers, more than comfortable getting 3+ outs, and even finishing/saving games, but not having set roles is somewhat concerning.

Like we said earlier, expect Tampa Bay to finish above .500 and make the playoffs as a Wild Card, but don't take them to win the AL East or more than 89 games, no matter how good the odds are. The East is just too competitive, and the Rays' offense scares us. Go with the conservative approach and take Tampa Bay to finish with less than 89 wins. 

The Bet: Tampa Bay Rays (under 89 wins, -110)
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All odds via Caesars Sportsbook