Matt Swartz of MLB Trade Rumors came out with a system last year to project expected arbitration prices. Here were the projections last year, and what the players actually received.
Joel Hanrahan ($4.0/$4.1)
Casey McGehee ($3.1/$2.5375)
Jeff Karstens ($2.8/$3.1)
Garrett Jones ($2.4/$2.25)
Ross Ohlendorf ($2.1/Non-Tendered)
Charlie Morton ($2.1/$2.445)
Jose Veras ($2.5/$2.0 with Milwaukee)
Chris Resop ($1.1/$0.85)
Evan Meek ($0.9/$0.875)
Jason Grilli ($0.8/$1.1)
For the most part, the predictions were accurate. Almost all of them were within $300 K of the MLBTR prediction. The exceptions were Casey McGehee, Jose Veras, and Charlie Morton, who was just barely outside of $300 K.
Today, MLBTR previewed the arbitration eligibles for the Pirates, along with the expected arbitration prices. Below are the expected prices, along with what we had a few weeks ago. The MLBTR projections will be added to the 2013 40-man payroll projection. Our projections don’t go as i...