Originally posted on Pirates Prospects  |  Last updated 10/22/12
Matt Swartz of MLB Trade Rumors came out with a system last year to project expected arbitration prices. Here were the projections last year, and what the players actually received. Player (Projection/Actual) Joel Hanrahan ($4.0/$4.1) Casey McGehee ($3.1/$2.5375) Jeff Karstens ($2.8/$3.1) Garrett Jones ($2.4/$2.25) Ross Ohlendorf ($2.1/Non-Tendered) Charlie Morton ($2.1/$2.445) Jose Veras ($2.5/$2.0 with Milwaukee) Chris Resop ($1.1/$0.85) Evan Meek ($0.9/$0.875) Jason Grilli ($0.8/$1.1) For the most part, the predictions were accurate. Almost all of them were within $300 K of the MLBTR prediction. The exceptions were Casey McGehee, Jose Veras, and Charlie Morton, who was just barely outside of $300 K. Today, MLBTR previewed the arbitration eligibles for the Pirates, along with the expected arbitration prices. Below are the expected prices, along with what we had a few weeks ago. The MLBTR projections will be added to the 2013 40-man payroll projection. Our projections don’t go as in-depth, mostly looking at similar players and WAR-based values. I included some notes below for the few players who had a big difference between their projection and ours. Player (MLBTR/Pirates Prospects) – Notes Joel Hanrahan ($6.9/$7.5) – We’ve been using Heath Bell as the comparison for Hanrahan. Bell received $1.255/$4.0/$7.5 in his three years of arbitration. So far Hanrahan is at $1.4/$4.1, which is slightly higher than Bell’s first two years. To keep things uniform, we’ll be changing to the $6.9 M projection, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Hanrahan end up closer to $7.5 M. Jeff Karstens ($3.8/$4.8) – A big factor with Karstens will be his injury history. His numbers when healthy warrant the higher price, but his lack of innings could bring that down. I’m guessing the lower MLBTR number looks closer at the injuries. Garrett Jones ($4.4/$4.6) – $200 K difference. Charlie Morton ($2.6/$2.7) – $100 K difference. Chris Resop ($1.3/$1.1) – $200 K difference. James McDonald ($3.0/$2.3) – McDonald will be an interesting arbitration case. It’s hard to pinpoint his value. He looked like an ace in the first half last year, and was horrible in the second half. His overall numbers from the last two years are identical (4.21 ERA in 171 IP each year), but if you look at the advanced metrics he was better this year. MLBTR has the higher number here. Neil Walker ($2.9/$2.7) – $200 K difference. Gaby Sanchez ($1.8/$2.9) – In arbitration you look at a player’s career, and not the most recent season. Sanchez had a 2.3 WAR in 2010 and a 3.0 WAR in 2011. In 2012 he had a -0.1 WAR. We placed equal value on all of the years. MLBTR could be looking more at the most recent year. The projected payroll before these updates was $63,101,800. After the updates it is $61,201,800.
Ios_download En_app_rgb_wo_45

DeMarco Murray unhappy with role in Eagles' offense

George Karl apologized to DeMarcus Cousins for trade comment

Jason Whitlock, ESPN part ways again

Devonta Freeman is scoring touchdowns at a historic rate

Joe Philbin not worried about being fired

NFL deciding how to share random PSI data during season


Report: LeSean McCoy has tear in hamstring

Report: Jay Cutler expected to play hurt against Raiders

Report: Marshawn Lynch not likely to play against Lions

WATCH: Adrien Broner uses Bruce Jenner zinger after win

ESPN explains reason for Dabo Swinney interview error

Brian Kelly: Kizer made right call on 2-point play

Jay Feely shares thoughts on why NFL kickers are struggling

Female reporters blocked from entering NFL locker room

Pierre Garcon makes awesome game-winning TD catch

WATCH: Mario Williams obliterates Rashad Jennings

WATCH: Ed Dickson scores TD on crazy fumble recovery

WATCH: Nelson Agholor makes incredible one-handed catch

London PR guy has hilarious reaction to angry Suh

Former LSU staffer had championship rings stolen from home

Giants LB Devon Kennard makes incredible interception

Andrew Bogut lost 22 pounds thanks to sugar documentary

Ohio State fans rip Cardale Jones on Twitter despite victory

LeBron has message for Tristan Thompson on Instagram

Rangers fire social media staffer over Charlie Strong tweet

MLB News
Delivered to your inbox
You'll also receive Yardbarker's daily Top 10, featuring the best sports stories from around the web. Customize your newsletter to get articles on your favorite sports and teams. And the best part? It's free!

By clicking "Sign Me Up", you have read and agreed to the Fox Sports Digital Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. You can opt out at any time. For more information, please see our Privacy Policy.
Get it now!
Ios_download En_app_rgb_wo_45

Philbin not worried about job status

London PR guy trolls Suh

10 takeaways from Week 5 of the college football season

Rick Pitino and the shadows that never leave

Chad Johnson ... Steelers kicker?

Flacco deserves more from the Ravens

Time for Neymar's Barcelona

Seth Rollins, WWE depth, Divas and winning

Madison Keys and the future of women’s tennis

Most underrated games in NFL Week 4

Today's Best Stuff
For Publishers
Company Info
Follow Yardbarker