Moving Milton Bradley

Lost amid the GM’ing brilliance on display this past week was one small question: What happens when Bradley is gone? See, it’s all fine and good to join the the undergraduate pile-on now that Bradley has been made into the scapegoat for 2009, but the simple fact is that the Cubs, upon trading him, will have to replace him. The need for an RBI guy is still there, according to Lou, and you need an OF, either in CF or RF, because the painful truth is that Micah Hoffpauir, Sam Fuld, Jake Fox, and Colvin are not everyday MLB OF’ers. They just aren’t. They’re all bench guys. And that’s fine, you need those guys around, but the Cub still need an everyday OF for 2009, preferably a run producer. Now, there are two ways to do this. One is to move Bradley for prospects, eat most of his deal, and then try and re-package those prospects with some of your own for the OF bat you need. Too many moving pieces, to much at risk, IMO. The other way is to take on a bad deal from some other club, and hope a change of scenery brings about a career resurrection, even as you convince the other GM the same can happen for Bradley. Again, just my opinion, but this seems the most likely scenario. In that vein, and recognizing that Bradley is due $9 mil for 2010 and $12 mil for 2011, I can foresee three possible deals: 1.) Bradley to DET for Magglio Ordonez and Dontrelle Willis. Here’s Maggs’ deal, per Cot’s: # 05:$6M, 06:$15M, 07:$12M, 08:$15M, 09:$18M, 10:$18M club option ($3M buyout), 11:$15M club option (no buyout) # Tigers may void contract after 2005 if Ordonez spends 25 or more days on disabled list in 2005 with recurrence of pre-existing left knee injury # $3M annually deferred from 2008-11 salaries at 1% interest # no-trade protection # 2010 option guaranteed at $18M if Ordonez has: * 135 starts or 540 PAs in 2009, or * 270 starts or 1,080 PAs in 2008-09 (met) # 2011 option guaranteed at $15M if Ordonez has: * 135 starts or 540 PAs in 2010, or * 270 starts or 1,080 PAs in 2009-10 # award bonuses: $0.5M for MVP ($1M for subsequent MVPs) ($0.2M for 2nd-5th in MVP vote, $0.1M for 6th-10th); $0.2M for WS MVP; $0.15M for LCS MVP; $0.1M each for Hank Aaron Award, Gold Glove, Silver Slugger, All Star team or BA/TSN/AP All Star ($50,000 for All Star selection) # perks: suite on road, Ordonez to purchase ballpark suite at home The 2010 option has already vested, so that’s largely moot, and if Ordonez pans out the way the Cubs would need him to, they’d certainly be on the hook for that 2011 option as well. Maggs’ bat has woken up since the ASB (.352/.422/.491), so that’s somewhat promising, and DET clearly wants him gone, so there’s that, but with the emotional baggage Bradley is bringing along with that $21 MM, I doubt the Tigers will make this deal unless the Cubs take Willis, as well. Here’s his deal: # 3 years/$29M (2008-10) * acquired by Detroit in trade from Florida 12/4/07 * signed extension with Detroit 12/20/07 (avoided arbitration) * 08:$7M, 09:$10M, 10:$12M * award bonuses: $0.5M for Cy Young ($0.2M for 2nd in vote, $0.1M for 3rd) That’s a lot of money to pay for a guy that’s been terrible for some time now, and hasn’t pitched in the majors since June. Not to mention that Maggs is 35, has a knee that could explode at any moment, and doesn’t play great defense (0.2 UZR/150 career in RF), and his power seems to have waned (7.0% HR/FB in 2009, compared to his 13.5% career average). But this is what happens when your solution to the Milton Bradley problem is to gut any trade value he had left. Given that this team involves all unwanted and well-paid players, I can see it happening, provided Ricketts can add payroll. IMO, this is the most likely deal. 2.) Bradley to TOR for Vernon Wells. Here’s Wells’ deal: # 7 years/$126M (2008-14) * signed extension with Toronto 12/06 * $25.5M signing bonus (paid in 3 $8.5M installments, March 1 2008-10) * 08:$0.5M, 09:$1.5M, 10:$12.5M, 11:$23M, 12:$21M, 13:$21M, 14:$21M * full no-trade clause * Wells may opt out of contract after 2011 * award bonuses: $0.25M for MVP, $0.2M for World Series MVP, $0.15M for LCS MVP, $0.1M for receiving most All-Star votes in league * Wells to donate $143,000 annually to Blue Jays charity Holy ****, that is one bad contract. The next time someone bitches about Zambrano or Bradley being overpaid, show them that ******* albatross. Ye gods. At any rate, Wells did hit well last year (.300/.343/.496), but he’s 31, his power is in steady decline, and he plays **** defense (-5.6 UZR/150 in the OF, career). He has been hitting well in the past month (.302/.352/.438), but he’ll never be worth that contract and, sadly, he probably never was. If Ricketts could add salary, with Wilkens around, I could see this deal having an outside shot. But I don’t thinks there’s one chance in hell Ricketts would add yet another backloaded deal to this roster. Not to mention that getting Wells to waive that NTC is going to be no walk in the park. Almost no shot here, but it’s out there. 3.) Bradley to SF for Aaron Rowand. Here’s Rowand’s deal: # 5 years/$60M (2008-12) * signed by San Francisco as a free agent 12/12/07 * $8M signing bonus ($4M each paid in 2008, 2009) * 08:$8M, 09:$8M, 10:$12M, 11:$12M, 12:$12M * full no-trade clause in 2008, limited no-trade clause in 2009-12 That’s not a shitstorm of nightmares about shitstorms like the Wells deal, but one look at Rowand’s declining production, and one realizes it isn’t a peach, either. His defense has declined sharply since 2005, but that could be a function of moving from a relatively small U.S. Cellular Field to a larger CF in Philly, to the expansive OF in SF. The real problem with Rowand is his drop-ff at the dish. From 2006-2009, his K rate has risen from 18% to 24.7%, while his LD% has dropped from 22% to 16%. Maybe a move to Wrigley gets Rowand back to the days when he was worth a win with the glove alone, but I don’t see it resurrecting him at the plate, where he’s in sharp decline. He could work out in a lightning-in-a-bottle, Jim Edmonds 2008 sort of way, or Cub fans will find out he’s old and bad and that this would be a terrible deal. I’m going with the latter, but the fact is, Hendry’s going to have to take a terrible deal is he wants to try and solve two problems at once, and with this team in the cash crunch it now appears they will be in, that’s what Hendry will likely be forced to do, so maybe Rowand as a Cub isn’t too far-fetched. Rowand. Wells. Ordonez. Pick your poison, gents.