NYT: Judge 'has about 22 solid pitches' left to hit HR No. 62

New York Yankees right fielder Aaron Judge (99) talks to umpire Andy Fletcher (49) between innings against the Texas Rangers at Globe Life Field. Jim Cowsert-USA TODAY Sports

NYT estimates Aaron Judge 'has about 22 solid pitches' left to hit HR No. 62

By Zac Wassink | Last updated 10/4/22

New York Yankees All-Star slugger Aaron Judge still hasn't connected on a home run since he tied the American League single-season record of 61 homers set by Yankees legend Roger Maris in 1961 last Wednesday. He now has just three regular-season games remaining at the Texas Rangers to make a memorable and historic trek around the bases.

Judge's task may be even more daunting than some realize heading into Tuesday's doubleheader in Texas.

For a piece published Tuesday morning, Jonathan Ellis of the New York Times used certain statistics to estimate how many plate appearances and hittable pitches Judge will see between now and the end of Wednesday's action.

"Through Monday, Judge has averaged 4.66 plate appearances per game this season when batting first," Ellis noted. "With three games remaining, we expect him to have roughly 14 plate appearances in the remainder of the regular season."

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Of course, Rangers pitchers won't and shouldn't be keen on gifting Judge only fat batting-practice tosses over the season's final three contests.

"Since Judge hit his 60th home run on Sept. 20, opposing pitchers have been somewhat more reluctant to give him pitches he can hit — after all, no one wants to give up a historic home run (or lose)," Ellis continued. "In Judge’s 12 games since Sept. 20, pitchers have delivered about 1.57 pitches in the strike zone per plate appearance by Judge, according to Major League Baseball’s zone charts (and counting intentional walks as plate appearances). That’s lower than his season average of 1.91."

Ellis added:

"If (the Rangers) continue to pitch to Judge as other pitchers have in his most recent games, that should work out to about 22 more pitches in the strike zone."

As Josh Clark wrote for Audacy, Rangers general manager Chris Young insisted during a Monday appearance on Dallas sports radio station 105.3 The Fan that his pitchers will challenge Judge early and often this week.

"I told our guys we're coming right after him. We're going to find out a lot about ourselves, too," Young said. "You want guys out there who are competitive, who want to attack him, see how they match up against the best players in the world, and I think this is a great opportunity to do so."

Judge went 1-for-4 with no walks and a strikeout in Monday's 3-1 win over Texas.

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