One for the books? Marks that could tumble if MLB resumes

Strikeout rate

Given the current trend of increasing strikeouts every year, this record is the most likely to shatter. In fact, it’s not even a year old. In 2019, the Astros Gerrit Cole (now with the Yankees) set the mark by fanning 39.9 percent of hitters on his way to 326 strikeouts. The previous record was 37.5 percent, held by Pedro Martínez in 1999.

There are some aces who could threaten this record in 2020, including Cole himself. Assuming a 50-something game season, each starter should pitch 10-11 times. Most likely, no one will throw more than 75 innings. Boston’s Chris Sale would have been Cole’s toughest competition, but he is sidelined with an elbow injury. His former teammate Justin Verlander will be a threat, as will the Nationals’ Max Scherzer and the Mets’ Jacob deGrom.

That’s just for starting pitchers, though. The best relievers in the sport rack up strikeouts at even more absurd rates. The only two pitchers in history to strike out more than half of their opposing batters in a season are both still active: the Yankees’ Aroldis Chapman (52.5 percent with the Reds in 2014) and the Cubs’ Craig Kimbrel (50.2 percent with the Braves in 2012). Over a 20-25 inning season, Milwaukee’s Josh Hader could certainly surpass that record after leading MLB with 47.8 percent last year.

Batting average

Ted Williams’ .406 batting average in 1941 isn’t technically a record, but he was the last to hit the magic mark -- one of the most hallowed statistics in American sports. It certainly won’t be easy to hit .400, even in a shortened year, but it seems possible that someone could make a run at it. The closest anyone has come since Williams was Tony Gwynn, hitting .394 in the strike-shortened 1994 season.

A year ago, Dodgers outfielder and eventual NL MVP Cody Bellinger made a chase for .400 through the first two months of the season. He eventually cooled off (at least with respect to batting average) and finished at .305, but he was batting .404 as late as May 21 through his team’s 49th game. That’s just about the length of season we should have in 2020, so a .400 chase is very much in play.

Bellinger hit just .263 from May 22 through the end of the season. He’s one of the best players in the game, but his true talent batting average level isn’t anywhere near .400. If he can pursue that record, lots of other players can too with the right hot streak. His on-field rival Christian Yelich of the Brewers won the batting title in the NL last year. Houston’s José Altuve has three batting titles on his resumé. D.J. LeMahieu of the Yankees is a great contact hitter as well.

Team slugging percentage

Barry Bonds’ highly suspect individual record of .863 in 2001 is probably out of reach, but the team record is approachable. Three of the four highest season team slugging percentages in MLB history were recorded last year: The Astros (.495) and Twins (.494) both eclipsed the 2003 Red Sox’s record (.491), and the Yankees (.490) fell just short.

Much will depend on the baseball itself, which was shown to be juiced last year. If the league doesn’t revert to a more normal ball, a team record of .500 isn’t out of the question. The timing of the season will be another important factor. Generally, home runs are down in the colder months. If the entire season is played in July, August and September, there won’t be any frigid April games to tamp down home runs. If the season stretches into mid- or late-October, long balls will diminish.

The three aforementioned teams all remain among the most potent offenses in the American League. There could be some wacky emergency rule changes too. If the NL adopts the designated hitter, the Dodgers will be in the mix as well, especially with Mookie Betts on the roster. Long shots include the Angels, A’s, Braves, Phillies and Red Sox.

ERA

Much like Williams’ .406 batting average, Bob Gibson’s 1.12 ERA in 1968 isn’t really a record, but it’s by far the lowest in the last 100 years. Since then, a handful of pitchers have pushed 1.50, such as Dwight Gooden (1.53 in 1985), Greg Maddux (1.56 and 1.63 in 1994 and 1995) and Zack Greinke (1.66 in 2015), but no one has come close to Gibson.  

Gibson benefited from an elevated mound that year, but in a different way, a shortened season could be just as much of an advantage. In mid-June of last year, Dodgers ace Hyun-Jin Ryu’s ERA was as low as 1.26. (He’s since signed with the Blue Jays.) By the end of May, rookie Braves hurler Mike Soroka featured a 1.07 mark, even though he was a few innings short of qualifying for the ERA title at the time.

Ryu and Soroka are both very good pitchers, but neither is considered among the elite starters in baseball. Jacob deGrom, the two-time defending Cy Young Award winner, posted a 1.70 ERA in 2018. He is the odds-on favorite to approach this record. Rays lefty Blake Snell also posted a sub-2.00 ERA two years ago. The other usual suspects, such as Gerrit Cole, Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander, remain in contention.

Team ERA (in a bad way)

Not many people remember the 1930 Phillies, but they were a pretty good hitting team. Chuck Klein and Lefty O’Doul both hit higher than .380, and the team batting average was .315, but Philly finished only 52-102 due to their obscene 6.71 ERA — the worst in MLB history. Since then, only the 1999 Rockies have had an ERA worse than 6.00.

It will be tough for a 2020 team to top (bottom?) the 1930 Phillies record, but the Rockies’ more recent mark could be matched for three reasons. First, the baseball itself was different last year, and homers flew out of ballparks at record numbers. Maybe the ball will have changed for 2020 and maybe it won’t, but the baseball landscape was littered with bloated ERAs in 2019.

Second, the rules might be different, allowing for marginal pitchers to throw a higher percentage of innings this year. To accommodate a breakneck-pace schedule, MLB could use expanded rosters and some sort of taxi squad. Starting pitchers already don’t go as deep into games as they used to, and all of this means more Triple-A-caliber pitchers could take the mound in the middle and late innings.

Finally, there are a lot of tanking teams these days. The Orioles (5.67) and Rockies (5.58) both came close to the 6.00 mark last year. The Tigers, Royals and Pirates certainly haven’t gotten much better in the pitching department. If that was the best Baltimore could do with a 13-man pitching staff, imagine what it'll look like with two more fringe relievers in the bullpen. Certainly, this isn’t a record any team will want to break, but just like all of the above, the short schedule puts it within reach.

OTHER RECORDS THAT COULD FALL:

Team stolen base percentage

Current record: 2007 Phillies (87.9 percent)
Challengers:  Diamondbacks (86.2 percent in 2019) and Dodgers (85.0 percent in 2019)

Strikeout-to-walk ratio

Current record: 2014 Phil Hughes (11.63)
Challengers: Corey Kluber (Rangers, if healthy), Max Scherzer (Nationals) and Justin Verlander (Astros)

Lowest on-base percentage

Current record: 1968 Hal Lanier (.222, he must have faced Bob Gibson a lot.)
Challengers: Chris Davis (Orioles, .276 in 2019) and Austin Hedges, (Padres, .252 in 2019)

Lowest team winning percentage

Current record: 1916 Athletics (.235, 36-117 win-loss record)
Challengers: Orioles (.333, 54-108 in 2019) and Tigers (.292, 47-114 in 2019)