Oscar Gonzalez Projected To Take Major Step Back In Sophomore Season With The Guardians

Oscar Gonzalez was the Guardians' playoff hero last season. 

He hit the walk-off home run in the 15th inning of the ALWC to send Cleveland to the ALDS. Then in that series, Gonzalez hit a base-hit walk-off that gave the Guardians a 2-1 series lead over the New York Yankees at the time.

The video of the rooftop reaction still gives me chills. 

Gonzales had a very solid season including showing up when it mattered in October. He slashed .296/.327/.461 with a .788 OPS in his rookie year. These kinds of numbers would be great for any Big Lague player let alone someone in their first season in the Majors.

However, others don't think this production is sustainable. 

FanGraphs' ZiPS projections have Gonzalez slashing .263/.293/.438/ in 130 games and 560 plate appearances in 2023. If they are correct, that's a troubling sign of how this season could go. 

But it's quite the drop-off. If Oscar does come out and play this way then he'll look like a completely different player than he was in 2022 which is a little hard to see happening.

The concerns definitely come from Oscar's plate presence. He nearly never walks and is in the 37th percentile in Whiff% and the first percentile in chase rate. So Gonzalez is either getting a base hit or he's getting out, there's no in-between.

Yes, there's no denying that Gonzalez's plate discipline can be questionable at times but when he does get a hold of the ball he crushes it and consistently finds gaps. 

It does seem like it's a little premature to think that he'll just completely fall off. Players take their strengths and weaknesses and work on those during the offseason. Oscar most likely already knows that these numbers exist and has been working on it over the winter.

Repeating his .788 OPS won't be an easy task, but having it drop off as hard as FanGraphs does seems a little impulsive.