Payroll Totals Arbitration Predictions

Every year I try to anticipate how the Blue Jays' payroll and a big component of that is estimating how much they will spend on arbitration-eligible players. I think I've gotten pretty good at this. Here's an excerpt from last year's version of this post in which I projected payroll showing what my predictions were for the arb guys:Jason Frasor ($1.45) $2.4 milBrian Tallet (1.o15) $1.6 milJeremy Accardo ($900k) $1.2 milShawn Camp ($750k) $900kShaun Marcum ($405,200) $750kCasey Janssen ($413, 900) $650kTotal = $7.6 millionHere's what they actually got:Frasor - $2.65Tallet - $2.0Accardo - $1.08Camp - $1.15Marcum - $.85Janssen - $0.7Total = $8.43That's a swing of about 10% over my guess and almost half the difference was from Tallet where I missed by 25% and I think that's pretty good.I noted a small discussion last week about the Jays' payroll based on a tweet by John Paul Morosi to the effect that the Jays would probably spend $80-85 million in 2011. U...