PECOTA really likes Soto

PECOTA sucks. On its '08 team projections, it was off by 10 or more W's on 11 teams, and off by 7 or 8 W's on another 7 teams. Substantially off on 18 of 30 teams.
It's pretty good, not great, on individual projections. The basis for N Silver's system is entirely rooted on a player's historical comp's. That should be one signficiant piece of an individual projection. Not the whole enchilada.
I'm too lazy---and not computer-savvy enough--to develop a better system. But someone will, soon. PECOTA is highly overrated. I do my own projections before they come out with theirs. At season's end, I match mine against theirs. Theirs are no better. Honest.

I'm sure they aren't, Mike. It's pretty simple to do a projection and there are 10 or 15 of them around. That being said, I find it unlikely that your projections are no worse since you even stated you're too lazy to come up with a better (more advanced system). PECOTA isn't the best projection system out there (CHONE is), but PECOTA beats the monkey (Marcels), which is the key. In all honesty, I doubt your projections even beat the monkey.