Originally posted on Baseball Professor  |  Last updated 1/31/12

Last March I wrote this about Mike Morse: “Assuming 500 at-bats, which I think is reasonable, we could be looking at a 20-homer, 80-RBI season with a good batting average coming from a widely undrafted player.” Morse ended up getting 522 at-bats, put up a “good” .303 average (and a .288 xBA, which is more what I expected) but crushed my power projections. That season was good enough to rank him 51st overall. We’ll see more of the same in 2012. Maybe he won’t bat over .300 again, but 25 homers and 80 RBI are totals you can take to the bank.

Best case scenario: Paul Konerko (CHW)
Similar players: Lance Berkman (STL), Nick Swisher (NYY), Logan Morrison (MIA)
Worst case scenario: Torii Hunter (LAA)


HR, RBI, BA, balance, HR on the road. The homers, RBI and average should all be pretty close to last season, but what I really like about Morse is the balance he showed last season. No matter what split you look at (vs. LHP/RHP, first half/second half, home/road), Morse put almost exactly equal numbers with one exception: power on the road. His home park in Washington is exactly league average for homers to right-handed batters, but Morse hit 20 of his 31 homers away from home. For what it’s worth, Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia is a good home run park for righties, but Turner Field in Atlanta and Sun Life Stadium in Florida are a little below average, and Citi Field (was) definitely below average. Things will get interesting this season, though as Citi Field brings in its fences and the Marlins move to a new park.


SB. I don’t see another real weakness in Morse’s game. We expected him to break out, he did and now he’ll probably hit like 2011 all over again. Will he repeat 30 homers and 90 RBI? We’ll see, but like I said in the intro, 25 and 80 are definitely safe bets.

ADP Report (79.9)

Had Morse batted .288 last year instead of .303 (but kept everything else the same), he would have ranked 81st overall instead of 51st. If we adjust his run and RBI totals to account for the hypothetical .288 average, Morse would have scored 70 runs and driven in 86. That 70/.288/31/86/2 line would have ranked him 88th overall. I tell you that just to give you some perspective. In my opinion this ADP is a little high for Morse as the likely drop in batting average will adversely affect most of his other numbers, but if you want to draft him in the 85-100 range that seems OK to me.


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