Originally written on Baseball Professor  |  Last updated 2/9/13
It’s tough to project a player who’s already gone through the best stretch of their career, and trust me, it doesn’t get any better than Kris Medlen‘s second half last year. In 12 starts after the All-Star Break last year, Medlen went 9-0 with a 0.94 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, 8.97 K/9, and 1.32 WHIP over 95.1 innings. I can’t remember the stat used off the top of my head, but last September ESPN compared that stretch to some of the best in the history of the game. It was that great. So Medlen isn’t that good. He isn’t nearly that good. He doesn’t need to be nearly that good. The good news is Medlen has always demonstrated great control, and his strikeout rate has been trending up for the last several seasons (including as 2012 progressed). Low fly ball rates will only help Medlen, though it remains to be seen how his infield defense will play. Andrelton Simmons is an all-world defender at shortstop and Juan Francisco has impressed of late at third, but Dan Uggla and Freddie Freeman are sub-par defenders by most defensive metrics. Still, high ground ball rates with great control are very favorable, and I’m optimistic about Medlen’s chances of building on what he started last year. At a Glance Strengths: ERA, WHIP Neutral: W, L, K, IP, QS Weaknesses: none Player Comparisons Best-case scenario: Jordan Zimmermann (WAS) Likely scenario: Chris Sale (CHW), Jake Peavy (CHW), Dan Haren (WAS) Worst-case scenario: A.J. Burnett (PIT) Kris Medlen 2013 Fantasy Projection I don’t think we’ll see Medlen toss a lot of innings, and that will hurt his counting stats, most noticeably his strikeout total. If he ends up being the top-100 player we think he’s capable of being, it’ll likely be because of his ERA and WHIP. Medlen should be among the league leaders in WHIP, and our projected 1.14 mark is rather easily attainable. Assuming his control remains almost what it was last year (we even projected a small decline to 2.04 BB/9), an OBA around .240 will do just fine. Tweet
Ios_download En_app_rgb_wo_45

Report: Aroldis Chapman unlikely to be traded

Mets’ trade for Carlos Gomez called off despite reports

Report: Rangers to acquire Cole Hamels from the Phillies

WATCH: Tulo hits first home run with Blue Jays

NFLPA officially files Brady lawsuit, wants QB to play Week 1


Mariota’s lack of red flags was a concern for NFL teams

Tigers 'rebooting,' make David Price available in trade

Jerry Jones backs Roger Goodell amid Deflategate controversy

Brady, agent contacted AT&T in attempt to retrieve deleted texts

Report: Chancellor 'strongly considering a camp holdout'

Colts become favorites to win AFC with Brady suspended

Farrell: Sandoval's conditioning 'continues to be addressed'

Revis won't wear Super Bowl ring around Jets teammates

Former NBAer Vin Baker now works at Starbucks

Can Preller fix the mess in San Diego?

Mike Leach compares Deflategate to Kardashians

All Panthers home games will also be broadcast in Spanish

Giants owner calls Pierre-Paul debacle ‘very disappointing’

Panthers WR cited for marijuana paraphernalia, had child in car

Bruins-Canadiens Winter Classic details announced

Jay Bruce and Carlos Gonzalez: Twin trade chips

Next summer's top 10 NBA free agents

Canseco will live as a woman to support Caitlyn Jenner

MLB News
Delivered to your inbox
You'll also receive Yardbarker's daily Top 10, featuring the best sports stories from around the web. Customize your newsletter to get articles on your favorite sports and teams. And the best part? It's free!

By clicking "Sign Me Up", you have read and agreed to the Fox Sports Digital Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. You can opt out at any time. For more information, please see our Privacy Policy.
Get it now!
Ios_download En_app_rgb_wo_45

Can Preller fix the mess in San Diego?

Next summer's top 10 NBA free agents

Who is the NL's new top shortstop?

Cardinals HC Bruce Arians calls Jen Welter a 'trailblazer'

Mets still act like a small-market team

Tom Brady: I did nothing wrong

NFL upholds Tom Brady's suspension, legal battle likely

Cardinals hire first female NFL coach

Larry Bird: Michael Jordan would kill me in 1-on-1 now

Seau family: HOF broke their word

Kobe to see time at power forward next year

Mike Pettine not ruling out Manziel

Today's Best Stuff
For Publishers
Company Info
Follow Yardbarker