Originally written on Baseball Professor  |  Last updated 11/15/14
I had the pleasure of owning Carlos Beltran last year — in July and August. In April, May, and June, Beltran was a slugging machine. By the time July 1 had come rolling around, Beltran had a .310/.396/.576 slash line with 20 homers and 61 RBI. His strikeout rate had fallen every month, and he was simply clobbering the ball. It was around this time I decided my outfield needed a little more pop and that Adam Wainwright was expendable to attain it. Beltran promptly went into a tailspin, batting just .206 (40-for-194) in July and August with eight homers and 24 RBI. His strikeout rates jumped to over 20% from a season low of 13.9% in June, and his walk rate immediately fell to just 4.4% in July after hovering around 11% for the first three months. Of course, I stuck with Beltran for most of July and August, benching him in the latter part of the stretch before all-out dropping him at the very beginning of September. Well wouldn’t you know it, that’s exactly when Beltran got going again! Despite the trouble I had owning the St. Louis slugger last year, the good news is that he stayed on the field for 151 games after three mostly injury-plagued seasons from 2009-2011 (though his 142 games played in 2011 is pretty good, too). It took a 19.9% HR/FB rate for Beltran to hit those 32 homers with 97 RBI, and I wouldn’t expect that rate, his highest since 2006, to stick around in 2013. Overall, though, Beltran gave us plenty of reasons to put him on a shortlist of boring, old guys to draft. At a Glance Strengths: RBI, OBP, SLG, OPS Neutral: R, BA, HR, SB Weaknesses: health Player Comparisons Best-case scenario: Allen Craig (STL) Likely scenario: Hunter Pence (SF), Nelson Cruz (TEX), Nick Swisher (CLE) Worst-case scenario: injured or Andre Ethier (LAD) Carlos Beltran 2013 Fantasy Projection We’re going to assume fairly good health here, projecting Beltran for 140 games, but Beltran is a threat to go down at any time. Assuming moderate health, Beltran is slated to bat fourth for the Cardinals, so I’ll admit our projected 74 RBI might be a bit low. Overall this was intended to be a safe projection for a player who could just as easily have 54 RBI as he is to have 94, so 74 is a nice compromise. That said, we may decide to raise that projection. We haven’t completely decided yet. Last year Beltran’s overall 20.0% strikeout rate was a career worst, which isn’t a very good sign for his batting average in 2013. While our xBA equation suggests Beltran should have posted a .296 BA last year (despite the high strikeout rate) due to a 20.4% line drive rate and his slight ground ball tendency, the rise in strikeouts worries me. Beltran is currently going 111th overall on MockDraftCentral.com, which is right in line with our ranking here. If we do in fact decide to add more RBI to his final projection, Beltran will probably jump up to around 85-90 overall, and that would make him a pretty solid draft day value. In OBP leagues I would feel confident going higher on him seeing as his career OBP (.360) is pretty darn good, and he’s a better player in roto leagues than H2H where a sudden injury could burn you. Tweet
GET THE YARDBARKER APP:
Ios_download En_app_rgb_wo_45
MORE FROM YARDBARKER

Report: Kobe Bryant likely to retire following next season

Don Shula named in painkiller lawsuit from former NFL players

Kyrie Irving questionable for Game 2 versus Atlanta

Michael Sam signs with CFL’s Montreal Alouettes

Ex-A&M quarterback Kenny Hill transferring to TCU

LIKE WHAT YOU SEE?
GET THE DAILY NEWSLETTER:

Michael Bennett compares Pete Carroll to Willy Wonka

Jim Kelly: There is no doubt Tom Brady cheated

Warriors hang on, edge Rockets in Game 2 thriller

Farrell 'not ruling anything out' as Red Sox's struggles persist

Gretzky: Connor McDavid could be the next Gretzky

Bucs' Clint McDonald: Jameis Winston already leading team

Re-evaluating all 30 MLB teams at the quarter mark, ranked

Is virtual reality training the next leap forward for football?

Warriors a very shaky 2-0 against the Rockets

NFL icon Bud Grant zings Pats with Deflategate joke on Twitter

RG3 announces birth daughter's birth on social media

Don't listen to Nick Saban, the bowl system is just fine

MLB scores partial victory in minor league wage lawsuits

Ranking the NBA Playoffs' most significant injuries

WATCH: Will Smith ejected for foreign substance on arm

Guy behind NFL's social media trolling of Pats is a Jets fan?

In defense of 76ers general manager Sam Hinkie

Madison Bumgarner homered off of Clayton Kershaw

MLB News
Delivered to your inbox
You'll also receive Yardbarker's daily Top 10, featuring the best sports stories from around the web. Customize your newsletter to get articles on your favorite sports and teams. And the best part? It's free!

By clicking "Sign Me Up", you have read and agreed to the Fox Sports Digital Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. You can opt out at any time. For more information, please see our Privacy Policy.
the YARDBARKER app
Get it now!
Ios_download En_app_rgb_wo_45

Jim Kelly: No doubt Tom Brady cheated

Post-combine NBA Draft big board: Top 30

Ex-players sue NFL for conspiring to push painkillers

Astros surprising, but can get better with Correa

Here come the Giants

Aaron Hernandez got new tattoo in prison

TUF weekly recap by NOS® Energy Drink

Ten players who could benefit due to PAT rule change

Five QBs set for breakout campaigns

Report: Lakers will pursue Thibodeau

MLS leaders struggling with attendance

LBS: I was a contestant on Sports Jeopardy!

Today's Best Stuff
For Bloggers

Join the Yardbarker Network for more promotion, traffic, and money.

Company Info
Help
What is Yardbarker?

Yardbarker is the largest network of sports blogs and pro athlete blogs on the web. This site is the hub of the Yardbarker Network, where our editors and algorithms curate the best sports content from our network and beyond.