Originally written on Baseball Professor  |  Last updated 11/15/14
Todd Frazier‘s professional baseball career has been slowly building to this moment. Throughout both the minors and his first semi-full time season with the Reds, Frazier’s power numbers have steadily improved, and Scott Rolen‘s departure has officially given Frazier Cincinnati’s starting job at third base. Frazier has always struck out at a decent clip (around 22%) but he walks a good amount of the time as well (around 8%). I’d really prefer one (or both) of those numbers be better, but they’re good enough to give Frazier a chance at hitting for a won’t-kill-your-fantasy-team .265-.275 average. His fantasy value is tied almost exclusively to his ability to hit homers, so as long as he can stay in that range this year, Frazier will likely prove to be an undervalued fantasy contributor. At a Glance Strengths: HR, RBI Neutral: SB, BA, OBP, SLG, OPS Weaknesses: R Player Comparisons Best-case scenario: Josh Willingham (MIN) Likely scenario: Dayan Viciedo (CHW), Nick Swisher (CLE), Michael Cuddyer (COL) Worst-case scenario: Garrett Jones (PIT) Todd Frazier 2013 Fantasy Projection There’s some heavy disagreement about Frazier behind the scenes on Baseball Professor. I wanted to project more power, something in the 27-29 homer range. George was thinking more like 20-22 homers. We semi-compromised on 24 homers, but it took more than one conversation to settle on that number. And some of those conversations bordered on “heated.” Like I said in the intro, Frazier’s fantasy value is almost exclusively tied to his home run power, so his owners this year should be watching his fly ball rate very closely. Last year Frazier hit 19 homers on the strength of a 44.7 FB%, but in limited time in 2011 that rate was just 31.0%. Those rates were taken from Fangraphs, which doesn’t track minor league fly ball rates, so I had to go to a different site (statcorner.com) for those. There’s a bit of disagreement between the two sources on exactly what’s a fly ball versus line drive, but even StatCorner shows that Frazier’s 2012 fly ball rate was a new career high. The safe thing to do is project a slight drop in fly ball rate and watch early on to see if his batted ball trends begin to resemble 2012′s. If they do, I’d be bullish on Frazier’s home run potential. And for good measure, Frazier even stole a bunch of bases in both 2010 and 2011 (14 and 18, respectively). I wouldn’t bank on those kinds of totals in 2013, but don’t be surprised if he begins piling on the steals. Tweet
GET THE YARDBARKER APP:
Ios_download En_app_rgb_wo_45
MORE FROM YARDBARKER

Dolphins expect Ndamukong Suh to attend voluntary OTAs

Kyle Long has great reaction to Bears releasing Ray McDonald

Hot start helps Rockets stave off elimination against Warriors

Matt Millen leaving ESPN for FOX, Big Ten Network

Royals' Guthrie sets records in blowout loss to Yankees

LIKE WHAT YOU SEE?
GET THE DAILY NEWSLETTER:

John Farrell: Pitchers need an approved gripping substance

Cam Newton: Nobody has ever been who I'm trying to be

Bears cut Ray McDonald after domestic violence arrest

Report: Paul Pierce could opt out of contract, join Clippers

Report: NBA exploring moving start of Finals up

Isaiah Thomas: Danny Ainge wants my input on free agents

Dwight Howard hangs with fans left stranded by Houston storm

Eight biggest disappointments a quarter way into MLB season

Stephen Curry leaves Game 4 after nasty fall, returns later

WATCH: Khris Davis trolls umps after controversial homer

Is Adrian Peterson leveraging himself out of the league?

Mascot creates controversy with 'Police Lives Matter' sign

The Talented Mr. Blatt

The curious case of Frank Kaminsky

Is the Cavs' Matthew Dellavedova a dirty player?

LeBron lifts Cavaliers to brink of Finals, but are they ready?

Will Phil Jackson give himself a chance to succeed with Knicks?

Most valuable non-QB for each NFL team

MLB News
Delivered to your inbox
You'll also receive Yardbarker's daily Top 10, featuring the best sports stories from around the web. Customize your newsletter to get articles on your favorite sports and teams. And the best part? It's free!

By clicking "Sign Me Up", you have read and agreed to the Fox Sports Digital Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. You can opt out at any time. For more information, please see our Privacy Policy.
the YARDBARKER app
Get it now!
Ios_download En_app_rgb_wo_45

WATCH: Curry leaves game after nasty fall

Royals' Guthrie sets records in blowout

Bears cut McDonald after incident

Report: Pierce could opt out of contract

Could the NBA Finals be moved up?

The Talented Mr. Blatt

Is Dellavedova a dirty player?

Ballplayers in the military: A tribute

Most valuable non-QB for each NFL team

WATCH: LeBron's ferocious dunk in traffic

Kelly drops hint about ND offense

John Madden: Last SB play will 'torment' Carroll

Today's Best Stuff
For Bloggers

Join the Yardbarker Network for more promotion, traffic, and money.

Company Info
Help
What is Yardbarker?

Yardbarker is the largest network of sports blogs and pro athlete blogs on the web. This site is the hub of the Yardbarker Network, where our editors and algorithms curate the best sports content from our network and beyond.