Originally posted on Baseball Professor  |  Last updated 1/23/13
For a free-swinging, 24-year-old corner outfielder with some pop, Dayan Viciedo doesn’t strike out that much. For his career, both majors and minors, Viciedo’s strikeout rate has hovered around 20%, which isn’t too bad considering most players with his profile are easily north of that mark. And that’s just one reason why I like Viciedo this year. He also has Chicago’s full-time starting left field gig plus enough power to make a serious run at 30 homers. If he can get close to replicating last year’s 22.1% line drive rate, Viciedo should be one of the rare cheap power options that doesn’t kill your batting average. If there is a ***** in Viciedo’s armor, it’s his fly ball rate. Honestly, for a player like Viciedo I’d expect a rather noticeable fly ball tendency. Instead, he’s more of a ground ball hitter. He has the strength to make his limited fly balls count (20.5% HR/FB rate in 2012), but imagine the damage he could inflict if he put the ball in the air more often. At a Glance Strengths: HR, RBI, SLG Neutral: BA, R, OPS Weaknesses: SB, OBP Player Comparisons Best-case scenario: Corey Hart (MIL) Likely scenario: Kendrys Morales (SEA), Michael Morse (SEA), Jason Kubel (ARI) Worst-case scenario: Will Middlebrooks (BOS) Dayan Viciedo 2013 Fantasy Projection Right now Viciedo’s ADP on MockDraftCentral.com is 208. That’s an insane value. Even if he was to duplicate his 2012 stat line — 64 R, 25 HR, 78 RBI, 0 SB, .255 BA — he’d still be worth a top-200 pick. I really don’t think our 2013 projection is overly optimistic, and that means Viciedo can easily deliver production of a 13th-15th round pick almost seven rounds later. Seriously, I’m looking at his minor league stats and major league peripherals right now and I can’t find a reason not to take a chance on Viciedo. He has the playing time, he has the strength, and we have completely realistic expectations. If you’re in the market for a great value (and who isn’t?) then Viciedo should be one of your top targets. The only exception to that is OBP leagues where Viciedo’s walk rate certainly doesn’t do him any favors. Tweet
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