Originally posted on Baseball Professor  |  Last updated 1/18/13
Ian Kennedy‘s 2011 and 2012 seasons were actually very similar with one major difference: home runs allowed. Kennedy has always displayed slight fly ball tendencies, and in 2011 that wasn’t much of a problem. That year he allowed 19 homers with a 7.7% HR/FB rate, and he rode that below-league average mark to a surprising 2.88 ERA and a 21-win season. In 2012, Kennedy posted almost the exact same strikeout and walk rates as 2011, and batters didn’t hit many extra fly balls against him (42.1 FB% in 2012 versus 39.5% in 2011). The difference was he allowed 28 homers on the back of a 10.8% HR/FB rate, a much more reasonable mark given the ballpark he plays in. In fact, over the last three seasons Diamondbacks pitchers have allowed homers on exactly 10.8% of the flies they’ve allowed, and that accounts for them playing half their games at Chase Field and half in road parks. At a Glance Strengths: W, K, QS Neutral: ERA, WHIP, L, BB Weaknesses: HR Player Comparisons Best-case scenario: James Shields (KC) Likely scenario: A.J. Burnett (PIT), Ryan Dempster (BOS), Yovani Gallardo (MIL) Worst-case scenario: Edwin Jackson (CHC) Ian Kennedy 2013 Fantasy Projection Kennedy’s success completely hinges on his ability to limit the long ball as well as limit the damage done by the inevitable blast. I expect him to lower his WHIP from last year (1.30), and that will help him keep his ERA under 4.00. Just don’t expect a repeat of 2011′s Cy Young caliber performance. Even with his homer troubles, though, Kennedy is a durable starter who will top 200 innings (barring injury), approach 190-200 strikeouts, and probably win 15-18 games backed by a sneaky good Arizona lineup…as long as they don’t trade Justin Upton. Tweet
Ios_download En_app_rgb_wo_45

DeMarco Murray: Running more plays will mean more chances

Harrison Barnes unreasonably unhappy with Warriors offer

Jerry Jones defends Greg Hardy over controversial comments

Witten, Gronkowski engage in mutual admiration society

Thabo Sefolosha not guilty of nightclub incident charges

Tony Parker hopes to play 20 seasons with San Antonio Spurs


Pagano 'supremely confident' about chances vs. Pats

Nick Saban to Alabama fans: 'Don't have an arrogant attitude'

Kobe on 93rd ranking: ‘Don’t ask me about silly stuff like that’

Boomer Esiason: 49ers have ‘ruined’ Colin Kaepernick

Adrian Beltre ruled out for Game 2 of ALDS with back injury

Parise’s hat trick sparks comeback win in Wild’s opener

MLB News
Delivered to your inbox
You'll also receive Yardbarker's daily Top 10, featuring the best sports stories from around the web. Customize your newsletter to get articles on your favorite sports and teams. And the best part? It's free!

By clicking "Sign Me Up", you have read and agreed to the Fox Sports Digital Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. You can opt out at any time. For more information, please see our Privacy Policy.
Get it now!
Ios_download En_app_rgb_wo_45

Get to know the four NL playoff teams

Are the Astros the new Royals?

‘Macarena’ used at practice to ready Rams defense for Rodgers

Harbaugh had troubled UM center move in with grandma

Blue Jays surprise nine-year-old fan who lost father to cancer

Name every QB to play in the NFL at the age of 40

Week 5 NFL power rankings

Vin Scully to miss the entire postseason

Putin celebrates birthday by scoring seven goals in hockey game

"Friday Night Lights" writer calls Chip Kelly a fraud

Today's Best Stuff
For Publishers
Company Info
Follow Yardbarker