Originally written on Baseball Professor  |  Last updated 1/18/13
Mlb-arizona-diamondbacks
Ian Kennedy‘s 2011 and 2012 seasons were actually very similar with one major difference: home runs allowed. Kennedy has always displayed slight fly ball tendencies, and in 2011 that wasn’t much of a problem. That year he allowed 19 homers with a 7.7% HR/FB rate, and he rode that below-league average mark to a surprising 2.88 ERA and a 21-win season. In 2012, Kennedy posted almost the exact same strikeout and walk rates as 2011, and batters didn’t hit many extra fly balls against him (42.1 FB% in 2012 versus 39.5% in 2011). The difference was he allowed 28 homers on the back of a 10.8% HR/FB rate, a much more reasonable mark given the ballpark he plays in. In fact, over the last three seasons Diamondbacks pitchers have allowed homers on exactly 10.8% of the flies they’ve allowed, and that accounts for them playing half their games at Chase Field and half in road parks. At a Glance Strengths: W, K, QS Neutral: ERA, WHIP, L, BB Weaknesses: HR Player Comparisons Best-case scenario: James Shields (KC) Likely scenario: A.J. Burnett (PIT), Ryan Dempster (BOS), Yovani Gallardo (MIL) Worst-case scenario: Edwin Jackson (CHC) Ian Kennedy 2013 Fantasy Projection Kennedy’s success completely hinges on his ability to limit the long ball as well as limit the damage done by the inevitable blast. I expect him to lower his WHIP from last year (1.30), and that will help him keep his ERA under 4.00. Just don’t expect a repeat of 2011′s Cy Young caliber performance. Even with his homer troubles, though, Kennedy is a durable starter who will top 200 innings (barring injury), approach 190-200 strikeouts, and probably win 15-18 games backed by a sneaky good Arizona lineup…as long as they don’t trade Justin Upton. Tweet
GET THE YARDBARKER APP:
Ios_download En_app_rgb_wo_45
MORE FROM YARDBARKER

49ers OC: Kaepernick didn’t regress as much as believed

John Calipari may coach Kentucky until he is 73

Eric Berry cleared to practice with Chiefs

WATCH: Pedro Martinez's number retired in ceremony

Mets reliever Jenrry Mejia suspended 162 games for PEDs

LIKE WHAT YOU SEE?
GET THE DAILY NEWSLETTER:

Brady told staff to hand copy of game ball rules to officials

Phillies agree to send Jonathan Papelbon to Nationals

Report: Russell Wilson to end contract negotiations Friday

Report: Brady authorizes NFLPA to appeal his case in court

NFL, NFLPA reduce Le'Veon Bell suspension

Tim Brown: Cardinals new coach Jen Welter is 'tough as nails'

Luther Campbell jabs FSU coach over decommitment

WATCH: Royals infielders combine for incredible play

Cowboys DE Jeremy Mincey to hold out of training camp

Terry Bollea's self-destruction: Hulkamania as social construct

Lou Holtz: ND has 'legitimate chance' to make playoff

Golfer Billy Hurley III asks for help finding missing father

Dismissed Clemson DE tweets he hates cops after arrest

Smith to report to camp, no charges filed for child abuse

Angels stockpile outfielders, acquire Murphy and DeJesus

Penguins trade Brandon Sutter to the Canucks

Ronda Rousey willing to fight Miesha Tate a third time

Mexico fires coach for alleged brawl after Gold Cup win

MLB News
Delivered to your inbox
You'll also receive Yardbarker's daily Top 10, featuring the best sports stories from around the web. Customize your newsletter to get articles on your favorite sports and teams. And the best part? It's free!

By clicking "Sign Me Up", you have read and agreed to the Fox Sports Digital Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. You can opt out at any time. For more information, please see our Privacy Policy.
the YARDBARKER app
Get it now!
Ios_download En_app_rgb_wo_45

NFL upholds Tom Brady's suspension, legal battle likely

Cardinals hire first female NFL coach

Larry Bird: Michael Jordan would kill me in 1-on-1 now

Seau family: HOF broke their word

Kobe to see time at power forward next year

Mike Pettine not ruling out Manziel

Galette appears to unload on Payton

Dez Bryant in 'financial distress' before signing new deal

Top 10 CFB coaches on the hot seat

Was Popovich close to retiring last year?

Kyle Busch continues historic run with Brickyard win

WATCH: Mike Trout HR lands in 'Trout Net'

Today's Best Stuff
For Publishers
Company Info
Help
Follow Yardbarker