Found January 11, 2013 on Baseball Professor:
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Coming into 2012, Jeremy Hellickson was one of my big bust candidates. In 2011, he won the AL Rookie of the Year award based on his 2.95 ERA over 189 innings, but he didn’t boast very good strikeout (5.57 K/9) or walk rates (3.43 BB/9). In fact, a lot of his success came from a .223 BABIP and 82.0 LOB%, which would explain his very high 4.44 FIP in 2011. Well, in 2012 Hellickson didn’t really change much. He improved his strikeouts (6.31 K/9) and walks (3.00 BB/9), but those are far from elite numbers. Again, Hellickson benefited from a low BABIP (.261) and high strand rate (82.7 LOB%), which helped him keep a 3.10 ERA despite posting a 4.60 FIP. It’s now been two seasons with Hellickson defying the laws of luck and chances are it’s going to blow up in his face eventually, but if he can do it for a third straight season we will have to start calling it a trend rather than dumb luck. My money is on the former and that this will finally be the year where Hellickson shows his true colo...
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