Originally written on Baseball Professor  |  Last updated 11/15/14
Mlb-rays-tigers-aug
Coming into 2012, Jeremy Hellickson was one of my big bust candidates. In 2011, he won the AL Rookie of the Year award based on his 2.95 ERA over 189 innings, but he didn’t boast very good strikeout (5.57 K/9) or walk rates (3.43 BB/9). In fact, a lot of his success came from a .223 BABIP and 82.0 LOB%, which would explain his very high 4.44 FIP in 2011. Well, in 2012 Hellickson didn’t really change much. He improved his strikeouts (6.31 K/9) and walks (3.00 BB/9), but those are far from elite numbers. Again, Hellickson benefited from a low BABIP (.261) and high strand rate (82.7 LOB%), which helped him keep a 3.10 ERA despite posting a 4.60 FIP. It’s now been two seasons with Hellickson defying the laws of luck and chances are it’s going to blow up in his face eventually, but if he can do it for a third straight season we will have to start calling it a trend rather than dumb luck. My money is on the former and that this will finally be the year where Hellickson shows his true colors on the surface rather than them lurking under the surface. At a Glance Strengths: IP, ERA, QS Neutral: W, BB, WHIP Weaknesses: L, K/9, K Player Comparisons Best-case scenario: Matt Cain (SF) Likely scenario: Tim Hudson (ATL), Wade Miley (ARI), Jon Niese (NYM) Worst-case scenario: Gavin Floyd (CHW) Jeremy Hellickson 2013 Fantasy Projection There is one thing that Hellickson improved on in 2012 that I liked; he improved his GB/FB ratio from 0.78 to 1.12, which is a major improvement. Even as a fly ball pitcher, he always benefited from pitching in a great pitcher’s park (1.07 HR/9 at home vs. 1.53 on road). Inducing more ground balls should help keep his home runs under control. There’s a chance that Hellickson continues this trend of high strand rates and low BABIPs, but if by July 2013 he’s waiver-wire fodder don’t act surprised. While we’ve seen recent success in Matt Cain‘s ability to maintain a low BABIP rate, he also has great control of the strike zone. However, no pitcher in history has been able to maintain this level of success with runners on base and Hellickson’s recent FIPs (4.44, 4.60) are an image of how ugly it could get.
GET THE YARDBARKER APP:
Ios_download En_app_rgb_wo_45
MORE FROM YARDBARKER

Mayweather beats Pacquiao by unanimous decision

Manny Pacquiao after loss: 'I thought I won the fight'

Did Evan Mathis respond to Chip Kelly's slight with barb?

WATCH: American Pharoah wins Kentucky Derby

Report: Rams trade RB Zac Stacy to Jets

LIKE WHAT YOU SEE?
GET THE DAILY NEWSLETTER:

Falcons draft pick's house burned down during draft

Packers trade up to draft Brett Hundley

Greg Hardy apologizes for joke about 9/11

Mayweather bans Rachel Nichols, Michelle Beadle from covering fight

Five takeaways from Day 2 of the 2015 NFL Draft

Elite recruit Jaylen Brown commits to California

Clippers beat Spurs on Chris Paul shot in Game 7

Jimmy Kimmel's Manny Pacquiao T-shirt goes viral

Big fight packs airport, leaves no room for planes

Pete Carroll discusses Russell Wilson's contract status

Jim Harbaugh not happy Lou Holtz is out at ESPN

Cubs fans want Harry Caray video for seventh inning stretch

Winners and losers from the NFL draft

Brooklyn Decker expecting first child with Andy Roddick

Michigan using other programs' draftees to recruit players?

Texas staffer takes shots at Baylor, Texas A&M during draft

Rob Gronkowski wears awesome suit to Kentucky Derby

WATCH: Bryce Petty reacts to being drafted by the Jets

MLB News
Delivered to your inbox
You'll also receive Yardbarker's daily Top 10, featuring the best sports stories from around the web. Customize your newsletter to get articles on your favorite sports and teams. And the best part? It's free!

By clicking "Sign Me Up", you have read and agreed to the Fox Sports Digital Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. You can opt out at any time. For more information, please see our Privacy Policy.
the YARDBARKER app
Get it now!
Ios_download En_app_rgb_wo_45

Winners and losers from the NFL draft

Report: Zac Stacy traded to Jets

Hardy apologizes for joke about 9/11

Jerry Jones sends letter to Pacquiao

Mayweather bans Beadle, Nichols

WATCH: A-Rod fights back tears

A-Rod hits 660th home run, ties Willie Mays

Mayweather vs. Pacquiao: Celebrities make their picks

Ryan Succop offers to arm-wrestle Marcus Mariota for No. 8

Laila Ali rips Floyd Mayweather Jr.

Peterson wants more money from Vikes

Chip Kelly just doesn’t care about defense

Today's Best Stuff
For Bloggers

Join the Yardbarker Network for more promotion, traffic, and money.

Company Info
Help
What is Yardbarker?

Yardbarker is the largest network of sports blogs and pro athlete blogs on the web. This site is the hub of the Yardbarker Network, where our editors and algorithms curate the best sports content from our network and beyond.