Originally posted on Baseball Professor  |  Last updated 1/11/14
There are two things that pop into my mind when talking about Oswaldo Arcia. First, that power potential is oh so sweet, and second, how great was Waldo Geraldo Faldo in Family Matters? There aren’t enough Waldo’s in this world. Of course, you guys only care about that first thought as his power could be a legit fantasy asset in 2014. Arcia came into the 2013 season ranked as the fourth-best prospect in the Twins system and through numerous call ups to the majors he amassed 378 PA where he managed 14 HR, .179 ISO, and .430 SLG. Those numbers aren’t eye-opening, but if you consider that he posted perennial .200+ ISOs in the minors there’s definitely potential for him to grow into something special. If we take a look a bit deeper into his power numbers you’ll see why: Avg. FB Dist.* FB%*** Avg. HR Dist.** HR/FB*** 2013 302.5 ft 40.6% 397.2 ft 14.7% MLB Rank 14th 23rd 50th 39th *Rank is out of 300 hitters, data provided by BaseballHeatMaps.com; **Rank is out of 70 hitters with at least 20 HR, data provided by HitTrackerOnline.com; ***Rank is out of 140 qualified hitters, data provided by FanGraphs.com While Arcia didn’t have enough PA to qualify him to be on any of these lists, you can see that if we plotted his numbers he would have placed fairly well in the fly ball numbers, but when it came to home runs he wasn’t great. So at 22 years old and in his rookie season, Arcia was one of the better flyball hitters, but struggled to get them over the fence? I’m ok with that. Now, while Arcia’s power could be due for a nice bump in 2014 there are two factors working against him. His home park and his approach at the plate. Let’s dive into his home park first. LHB HR Park Factor HR/FB (Home) HR/FB (Away) 2013 74 11.1% 19.5% Small sample sizes aside (208 PA at home and 170 PA away), Arcia’s HR/FB splits are rather large and it’s no surprise why when you look at the fact that Target Field is a very below-average park for left-handed hitters. Of course, that can be negated by the fact that the AL Central has some nice parks in terms of homer potential; Progressive Field, Comerica Park, and U.S. Cellular Field all have park factors of 100 or higher. The second factor working against Arcia is his poor plate discipline. He has a high propensity to swing and miss and pairs that with a below-average walk rate. That’s not the recipe for success in the majors and it’s something he will have to correct in his future years. Here’s where his plate discipline stats would have ranked if he had enough PA to qualify. K% BB% O-Swing%* Swing% Contact% SwStrk%** 2013 31.0% 6.1% 37.3% 51.3% 68.6% 15.8% MLB Rank 5th T-111th 21st 22nd 135th 3rd All ranks are out of 140 qualified hitters; * O-Swing% = Swings on pitches outside the strike zone; **SwStr% = % of swings that are misses. You can immediately see that Arcia takes a lot of hacks at the plate — usually at pitches that aren’t in the strike zone — which contributes to his high strikeout and whiff rates. The potential with Arcia is there, but he’s definitely in the raw-power, unpolished-approach category. At A Glance Strengths: HR Neutral: RBI, SLG, OPS, BB, 2B, 3B Weaknesses: R, SB, BA, OBP, K Player With Similar Fantasy Value Will Middlebrooks Ike Davis J.J. Hardy 2014 Fantasy Baseball Projection 2014 Projection: 599 PA, .260 BA, 63 R, 25 HR, 78 RBI, 4 SB Overall Rank: 164 | OF Rank: 57 He’s the perfect lottery ticket as his price for 2014 is still fairly low and if you hit on him you can cash in for years to come. If you’re drafting Arcia this year you should be doing so, expecting one thing and one thing only: power. He’s not going to light up the stat sheet with his BA, R, and SB totals. I just don’t see him improving his plate discipline so drastically that it affects his low contact rates. He’s always posted great BABIP rates in the minors and continued that trend him his rookie year (.336 BABIP). He’s clearly shown that when he puts the bat on the ball he give it a ride, but if he stays in the Chris Carter range of contact rates it’s going to hurt him. Any improvements in his plate discipline will help him hit for more power and if he can get a little more luck in his HR/FB rates you should be getting a solid season from someone who may only cost you an 18th-20th round selection. We have him projected at 25 HR and 78 RBI, but I wouldn’t be totally shocked if he surpasses those numbers given a full-time role in 2014. 2015 & Beyond The league is being inundated with low batting average hitters and Arcia is exactly that, but where he can separate himself from the pack is his power potential. With some improvements I could see his batting average rising up to the .270-range and if he realizes his full power potential he can be a perennial high-20, low-30 HR hitter. He’s the perfect lottery ticket as his price for 2014 is still fairly low and if you hit on him you can cash in for years to come.
PLAYERS: Oswaldo Arcia
TEAMS: Minnesota Twins
Ios_download En_app_rgb_wo_45

Report: Jose Fernandez has 'soured' on Marlins brass

Zach LaVine dedicates dunk contest win to Flip Saunders

Alleged Manning sexual assault cited in Tennessee lawsuit

Arian Foster: It's hard for me to watch football

Isaiah Thomas recruiting players at All-Star weekend

Report: Charles Woodson joining ESPN's Sunday NFL crew


Best and worst from NBA All-Star Saturday night

WATCH: Klay Thompson can't go home unless he beats Steph Curry in 3-Point contest

Star players are hurting Houston Rockets

Emmitt Smith: Adrian Peterson only current player who could break rushing record

Coach K gets buzzer-beater win over Virginia for his birthday

Baylor approves new measures to deal with sexual assault

WATCH: Dustin Johnson's son steals Jordan Spieth's club

Fans want Floyd Mayweather to buy their soccer team

Tennessee shares Valentines-themed photo of packed stadium

NY Post writer takes harsh shot at Jason Pierre-Paul

LaVine, Gordon put on best NBA dunk contest in years

WATCH: Thompson beats teammate Curry in 3-point contest

NFL teams, players hand out awesome Valentines

Earl Campbell ‘disappointed’ in Johnny Manziel, wants to help

Big man Karl-Anthony Towns wins NBA skills challenge

MLB commish: Cubs will host All-Star Game in near future

WATCH: Memphis forward recreates Vince Carter's elbow dunk in game

Bruins forward is goal scoring machine after suspension

Michael Jordan gives Kobe Bryant complete set of Air Jordans

Twins News
Delivered to your inbox
You'll also receive Yardbarker's daily Top 10, featuring the best sports stories from around the web. Customize your newsletter to get articles on your favorite sports and teams. And the best part? It's free!

By clicking "Sign Me Up", you have read and agreed to the Fox Sports Digital Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. You can opt out at any time. For more information, please see our Privacy Policy.
Get it now!
Ios_download En_app_rgb_wo_45

LaVine dedicates dunk contest win to Flip Saunders

Ranking the ten best free agent pitcher signings

Who had the best NBA All-Star Game of the last 40 years?

The winners and losers of the 2016 MLB offseason

On Kobe Bryant and taking greatness for granted

Bucks need to choose between wins, development

Fantasy booking WrestleMania 32

Unrestricted free agents each team must consider re-signing

QUIZ: Name the winners of the NBA Slam Dunk Contest

Thank you Daniel Bryan

Today's Best Stuff
For Publishers
Company Info
Follow Yardbarker