Originally written on Baseball Professor  |  Last updated 10/29/14
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Don’t be fooled by Homer Bailey‘s “breakout” 2012 season. Yes, he finally lasted a full season, topping 200 innings for the Reds. And yes, his 3.68 ERA was 33 points lower than the 4.01 major league average. But on a per-inning basis Bailey hasn’t developed much over the last three years. His strikeout rate, walk rate, OBA, BABIP, WHIP, and HR/9 were almost identical in 2011 and 2012, and his FIPs over the last three years have all been very similar. Chalk the breakout up to luck and increased workload — anyone’s going to look better if they throw 208 average innings versus 132 average innings — and The Great American Ballpark is still a hellacious place to play. At a Glance Strengths: IP, QS, BB Neutral: W, L, ERA, WHIP, K, OBA Weaknesses: none Player Comparisons Best-case scenario: Jarrod Parker (OAK) Likely scenario: Josh Beckett (LAD), Edwin Jackson (CHC), Jonathon Niese (NYM) Worst-case scenario: Joe Blanton (LAA) Homer Bailey 2013 Fantasy Projection My Bailey bashing in t...
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