Originally written on Baseball Professor  |  Last updated 1/3/13
Picimg_mlb_mar_07_7c6f
Don’t be fooled by Homer Bailey‘s “breakout” 2012 season. Yes, he finally lasted a full season, topping 200 innings for the Reds. And yes, his 3.68 ERA was 33 points lower than the 4.01 major league average. But on a per-inning basis Bailey hasn’t developed much over the last three years. His strikeout rate, walk rate, OBA, BABIP, WHIP, and HR/9 were almost identical in 2011 and 2012, and his FIPs over the last three years have all been very similar. Chalk the breakout up to luck and increased workload — anyone’s going to look better if they throw 208 average innings versus 132 average innings — and The Great American Ballpark is still a hellacious place to play. At a Glance Strengths: IP, QS, BB Neutral: W, L, ERA, WHIP, K, OBA Weaknesses: none Player Comparisons Best-case scenario: Jarrod Parker (OAK) Likely scenario: Josh Beckett (LAD), Edwin Jackson (CHC), Jonathon Niese (NYM) Worst-case scenario: Joe Blanton (LAA) Homer Bailey 2013 Fantasy Projection My Bailey bashing in the intro might be a bit misleading. We actually like Bailey. We even like him enough to put him in our top 200, meaning we think he should be drafted in leagues of any format. He has the durability to pitch over 200 innings, and he doesn’t walk many batters, which should help keep him out of trouble when the long ball inevitably strikes in his home ball park. He’s still a little bit on the hittable side, though, and that’s going to prevent him from putting up an above average WHIP. Cincinnati looks like a very good team this year, and Bailey goes deep into games. That should mean a lot of win chances, and the Reds have a great bullpen which should help him keep a lot of those win chances in tact. There’s definitely value in a pitcher who throws 200 innings, even if those innings are only slightly above average, and Bailey will make either a good frequent free agent add or back of the fantasy rotation starter throughout 2013.
GET THE YARDBARKER APP:
Ios_download En_app_rgb_wo_45
MORE FROM YARDBARKER

Sheldon Richardson escapes felony charges for recent arrest

Lawyer who litigated against NFL: Brady plays every game

Cowboys should sign interested RB Steven Jackson

Jameis Winston confirmed as Buccaneers starting QB

Russell Wilson contract increases likelihood of change

LIKE WHAT YOU SEE?
GET THE DAILY NEWSLETTER:

Jim Harbaugh doesn’t care if he’s popular

Johnny Manziel struggles in first day of Browns camp

Report: Wilson, Seahawks agree to four-year, $86.7M contract

Report: Former Jets exec leaked false Deflategate info to ESPN

Belichick on sticking it to NFL: 'Really not very important to me'

Yankees, Astros reportedly both pursuing Craig Kimbrel

Stop kvetching about Notre Dame, please

Rebuttal banner supporting Tom Brady flies over Pats practice

Ranking the NFL’s 32 head coaches

LeSean McCoy cancels party, but it wasn't some 'weird orgy'

Redskins making huge mistake by signing Junior Galette

New Blue Jay David Price got a flat tire on his way to Toronto

Five of the worst baseball trades since 2000

Famed ballboy Red Lightning spotted at Falcons camp

Rickie Fowler aces final hole, treats media to free beers

SEC remains college football's best conference

The Rock 'pretty disappointed,' but defends Hulk Hogan

Urban Meyer will make us wait on OSU's starting QB decision

MLB News
Delivered to your inbox
You'll also receive Yardbarker's daily Top 10, featuring the best sports stories from around the web. Customize your newsletter to get articles on your favorite sports and teams. And the best part? It's free!

By clicking "Sign Me Up", you have read and agreed to the Fox Sports Digital Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. You can opt out at any time. For more information, please see our Privacy Policy.
the YARDBARKER app
Get it now!
Ios_download En_app_rgb_wo_45

Ranking the NFL’s 32 head coaches

Five worst baseball trades since 2000

Examining the state of the NFL

Puig: Broke out of slump by playing baseball video games

Braves dump risk, exchange it for risk

David Price traded to Blue Jays

The indefensible Hulk Hogan

Cole Hamels chose Rangers over Astros

Can Preller fix the mess in San Diego?

Next summer's top 10 NBA free agents

Who is the NL's new top shortstop?

Cardinals HC Bruce Arians calls Jen Welter a 'trailblazer'

Today's Best Stuff
For Publishers
Company Info
Help
Follow Yardbarker