Originally written on Baseball Professor  |  Last updated 11/14/14

On a per-game basis, Josh Hamilton is an elite fantasy player, which seems to be a theme for the Rangers’ outfield (re: Nelson Cruz). In his five years, Hamilton has played in 120 games three times, hitting at least .298 all three years, 32 home runs twice, 100 RBI twice, 95 runs twice and eight steals twice. If he meets all of those numbers he’s easily a top 20 player. Hamilton plays half of his games in a great hitters ballpark and all of his games hitting cleanup in a loaded lineup. When he’s in the lineup, he should be in yours and the upside is enough to make him a top-30 selection.

Best case scenario: Stays healthy for at least 130 games
Similar players: Matt Holliday (STL), Nelson Cruz (TEX), Justin Upton (ARI) without the SB
Worst case scenario: Injuries limit him to around 100 games or fewer


Power, run production, ballpark. Hamilton is a career .321 hitter at home with a .277 ISO (.295 BA, .191 ISO on road). With the combination of his power and high batting average, Hamilton should have no issues driving in runs with the quality of hitters around him.


Health. It all comes down to health with Hamilton, which makes him an easy player to analyze, but frustrating to draft/own. He’s had five trips to the disabled list in the last five years and I’d put money down on another trip in 2012.

ADP Report (31.6)

Hamilton is one of those players that you will love or hate by the end of the season. If he can stay on the field for 145 games he will far outproduce his ADP, but he could get injured and you will be left cursing yourself for taking a chance. He’s the epitome of the high-risk/high-reward player because you will have to spend at least a top 40 pick to get him.

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