Originally written on Baseball Professor  |  Last updated 11/14/14
Any look at Jason Kipnis‘ 2012 season would be incomplete without mentioning how split his first- and second-half production was. After batting .277 with 53 R, 11 HR, 49 RBI, and 20 SB in the first half (370 PA), he slumped all the way to a .233 average with 33 R, 3 HR, 27 RBI, and 11 SB in the second half (302 PA).What happened?I’ve had many discussions surrounding Kipnis over the past few weeks, and most of the people I talk to think we overvalue him. “He was terrible in the second half. Pitchers finally started figuring him out!” OK, I’m sure that’s true to a degree. “He stole 31 bases last year, 20 of which came before the All-Star Break. He’d never done anything like that in the minors!” Yes, that’s also true.But did you know Kipnis actually posted a higher walk rate in the second half last year, 11.3% to 8.9%, and his K:BB ratio improved as well, down to 1.54 from 1.72? His .233 average after the break wasn’t the result of bad contact — his 21.9% line drive rate and 7.0% infield fly rate were both inferior to his first-half marks but point to a lot of bad luck. And to those out there who point to how Kipnis never displayed that kind of speed in the minors, how about the fact that he also displayed a little more power in the minors? You don’t think a few extra homers might help offset the a potential drop in stolen base output?In spite of his second-half slide, I love Kipnis in 2013.At a GlanceStrengths: SB, net SBNeutral: R, HR, RBI, BA, OBP, SLG, OPSWeaknesses: nonePlayer ComparisonsBest-case scenario: Dustin Pedroia (BOS)Likely scenario: Ben Zobrist (TB), Brandon Phillips (CIN), Starlin Castro (CHC),Worst-case scenario: Dustin Ackley (SEA)Jason Kipnis 2013 Fantasy ProjectionThe intro does a pretty good job of explaining why we project the kind of season we do from Kipnis. He hits a lot of line drives, keep the infield flies to a minimum, and has a solid K:BB ratio. That should yield a pretty good average. Honestly, I’m a little worried we didn’t go bullish enough with Kipnis’ projected .271 BA. I think a .285 season is almost just as likely, and I’d be shocked if he turns in another sub-.265 season.While he’s definitely not a fly ball hitter, I do think we could see him approach 20 homers this year. Cleveland’s lineup changes have moved Kipnis to third in the order, and that means we should be adding a lot more RBI to the 71 we project here. That probably means he attempts a couple fewer steals than we project, but I think low-20s in steals is a pretty good estimate.Overall, Kipnis could deliver top-50 production. With a current ADP of 64.1 you’re not getting a great value by drafting Kipnis, but you are ensuring you get a potential five-category producer at second base. After Kipnis, Brandon Phillips, and Ben Zobrist, who are all getting drafted in the sixth, seventh, or eighth rounds on average, you have to hope you get lucky and land Martin Prado or be faced with any of a number of options that could spell category death (Rickie Weeks‘ BA, Dan Uggla‘s BA, Jose Altuve‘s HR/RBI).
GET THE YARDBARKER APP:
Ios_download En_app_rgb_wo_45
MORE FROM YARDBARKER

Chris Johnson: I’d be a good fit with Cowboys

Dansby on Manziel: 'He's grown up right before our eyes'

Gregg Popovich reportedly makes $11 million per year

Stephen Strasburg is hurt again

Mayweather has message for Pacquiao about injured shoulder

LIKE WHAT YOU SEE?
GET THE DAILY NEWSLETTER:

Has Blake Griffin taken the next step?

Mike Evans liked Winston more than Mariota

Ernie Johnson gives his Emmy to Stuart Scott’s daughters

Titus Young avoids prison, receives probation

Manziel moves from downtown Cleveland to golf community

Ex sues Mayweather for $20M for lying in Couric interview

Jim Harbaugh: I'd love to see Judge Judy on Supreme Court

Which game statistically is most important in an NHL series?

Chip Kelly: 'I won't be here' if Eagles have to draft top QB

WATCH: Olympian uses javelin to pull out daughter's tooth

The brewing dispute over Alex Rodriguez’s bonuses

NCAA to hold record 42 bowl games next season

Mike Wallace: 'I'm the fastest player in the NFL'

Ty Lawson could be trade target for Celtics

WATCH: Zack Greinke does great bat flip after hitting double

WATCH: Fan uses beer as ice pack after being hit by ball

La'el Collins reportedly has 'airtight alibi' in murder case

WATCH: Stephen Curry nails shot from hallway prior to game

MLB News
Delivered to your inbox
You'll also receive Yardbarker's daily Top 10, featuring the best sports stories from around the web. Customize your newsletter to get articles on your favorite sports and teams. And the best part? It's free!

By clicking "Sign Me Up", you have read and agreed to the Fox Sports Digital Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. You can opt out at any time. For more information, please see our Privacy Policy.
the YARDBARKER app
Get it now!
Ios_download En_app_rgb_wo_45

Jim Harbaugh: I'd love to see Judge Judy on Supreme Court

Chip Kelly: 'I won't be here' if Eagles have to draft top QB

Brewing dispute over A-Rod’s bonuses

Top eight NFL free agents on the market

Eagles' Chip Kelly & Sam Bradford: In like, but not love

Manziel moves from downtown Cleveland

Making sense of the AL East pile-up

Chris Bosh on blood clot diagnosis: ‘I’m lucky to be alive’

Projecting the All-Star Game rosters

Tiger hasn't slept in three days since Lindsey Vonn breakup

2015 NBA Draft big board, first edition

Eliminate Hack-A-Player: Don't reward violating sports rules

Today's Best Stuff
For Bloggers

Join the Yardbarker Network for more promotion, traffic, and money.

Company Info
Help
What is Yardbarker?

Yardbarker is the largest network of sports blogs and pro athlete blogs on the web. This site is the hub of the Yardbarker Network, where our editors and algorithms curate the best sports content from our network and beyond.