Originally written on Baseball Professor  |  Last updated 11/16/14
At this time last year I was telling everyone who would listen to stay away from Mat Latos. In two full season with the Padres, Latos had posted fantastic FIPs of 3.00 and 3.16, but FIP doesn’t account for the ballpark in which he pitched half of his games so his better-than-average 8.0% and 7.3% HR/FB rates weren’t adjusted to the higher league average marks.For that kind of converstion we need xFIP, which normalizes Latos’ HR/FB rates to the league average (this helps us look at how he really pitched if done in a league average park, which is useful when comparing pitchers changing teams). In 2010 and 2011 with the Padres, Latos posted xFIPs of 3.21 and 3.52, respectively. Still very good, but not quite as great.Now, that wouldn’t matter if Latos was spending the next several seasons in sunny San Diego, but last year he suited up for Cincinnati in a far more homer-friendly park. It would be nearly impossible for him to replicate those low HR/FB rates. Indeed that was the case; Lat...
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