Originally written on Baseball Professor  |  Last updated 11/16/14
Mlb_may_17_9f10
Brandon Phillips has registered at least 587 plate appearances in each of his seven full season, all with Cincinnati. In those seven years he’s batted over .276 just three times. Two of those times have come in the last two years.In 2007 Phillips was a 30/30 player. In 2008 and 2009 he was a 20/20 player. In the last three seasons he’s failed to reach 20 homers or 20 steals even once. While Phillips is clearly declining — he’ll be 32 this June — he’s actually reinvented himself over these last two seasons and become a more balanced hitter.His strikeout rate has sat around 12.5% over the last three seasons after hovering around 15.5% in his first three, and his line drive rates in 2011 and 2012 (19.8% and 20.6%, respectively) were the two best of his career. Better strikeout rates and higher line drives generally yield better batting averages, and Phillips’ .294 and .290 xBAs in ’11 and ’12 only serve to reinforce this logic.It should be noted that Phillips had a career high 40.6% O-Swing rate last year (percentage of pitches swung at outside the strike zone), a career high, which led to a drop in his walk rate and likely contributed to his 9.2% infield fly rate (worst since 2008).At a GlanceStrengths: RNeutral: HR, RBI, SB, BA, OBP, SLG, OPSWeaknesses: nonePlayer ComparisonsBest-case scenario: Dustin Pedroia (BOS)Likely scenario: Ben Zobrist (TB), Jayson Werth (WAS), Aaron Hill (ARI)Worst-case scenario: Torii Hunter (DET)Brandon Phillips 2013 Fantasy ProjectionOver the last five years Phillips has seen his homer total slowly decline from 21 to 20 to three straight years of exactly 18. We figure he falls a homer shy of making it four straight seasons.Regardless, Phillips will likely give you around 30-35 homers and steals combined with a .280-.290 average. Shin-Soo Choo was a huge addition for the Reds, and his on-base skills will benefit Phillips in the two-hole. When our 2013 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide comes out on March 1, expect to see Phillips with more than 67 projected RBI as a result.Phillips’ ADP right now is 74.0, which seems pretty much spot on given his production over the last few years. Truth be told, once we up his RBI total that’s probably right where he’ll fall in our pre-draft rankings.He’s not a great OBP guy, really just a hair better than league average, but he could potentially finish with an OBP in the .340-.350 range if he restrains himself on those balls outside the zone and draws a few extra walks. Overall, though, second base drops off pretty quickly, and Phillips is a safe guy to target in all formats.
GET THE YARDBARKER APP:
Ios_download En_app_rgb_wo_45
MORE FROM YARDBARKER

Devon Still: Daughter has complications with transplant

Rivers denies report of problems with CP3 and Jordan

Orlando Magic hope Skiles can right sinking ship

Falcons waive Shembo over animal cruelty charges

Report: Tom Brady’s suspension appeal hearing set for June 23

LIKE WHAT YOU SEE?
GET THE DAILY NEWSLETTER:

Peterson is wrong (sorta): NFL players have great power

Scout: A-Rod 'looks like he doesn't give a (expletive)'

Belichick mum on Deflategate in first remarks since discipline

Dwight Howard suspended for first game of 2015-16 season

Bucs veterans missing Jameis while he's at rookie symposium

Bulls GM: No teams asked to talk with Tom Thibodeau

WATCH: Josh Hamilton hits first two homers of the season

Did Andrew Bogut take a shot at Mark Jackson?

$70 million Reebok deal is bad for UFC fighters

If the Warriors win the NBA title, the parade will be for Oakland

SEC no longer allows transfers with 'serious misconduct' issues

Klay Thompson officially diagnosed with concussion

Snoop Dogg hooks Texas A&M up with adidas cleats

WATCH: Stephen Curry rides a mini-horse

Metta World Peace gets ejected after five fouls in one minute

On satellite camps and the SEC crying over its self-protections

Four NFL quarterbacks set to take a step back in 2015

Spelling Bee co-champ wears LeBron jersey under shirt

MLB News
Delivered to your inbox
You'll also receive Yardbarker's daily Top 10, featuring the best sports stories from around the web. Customize your newsletter to get articles on your favorite sports and teams. And the best part? It's free!

By clicking "Sign Me Up", you have read and agreed to the Fox Sports Digital Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. You can opt out at any time. For more information, please see our Privacy Policy.
the YARDBARKER app
Get it now!
Ios_download En_app_rgb_wo_45

Devon Still's daughter has complications with transplant

$70M Reebok deal is bad for UFC fighters

If the Warriors win the title, the parade will be for Oakland

Peterson is wrong (sorta): NFL players have great power

Dwight Howard suspended for first game of 2015-16 season

Four QBs set to take step back in 2015

Spelling Bee co-champ wears LeBron jersey under shirt

Top 10 stories from 2015 NBA Playoffs

Rangers-Lightning Game 7 preview

The can't-miss Prince Fielder

Chip Kelly: Tebow is a quarterback

For LeBron, it's about more than the ring

Today's Best Stuff
For Bloggers

Join the Yardbarker Network for more promotion, traffic, and money.

Company Info
Help
What is Yardbarker?

Yardbarker is the largest network of sports blogs and pro athlete blogs on the web. This site is the hub of the Yardbarker Network, where our editors and algorithms curate the best sports content from our network and beyond.